Ugo Carabelli vs Auger-Aliassime 1:2: result and our tips
·
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 61% → with the players' profiles 67%
Auger-Aliassime: 20 matches in a row over 17.5 games; Over 17.5 games in recent matches: Ugo Carabelli 17 of 20, Auger-Aliassime 20 of 20 (tour average 83%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: C. Ugo Carabelli 14% · F. Auger-Aliassime 86%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 19.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 20.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | 79% | 21% | 91% |
| 17.5 | 69% | 31% | 83% |
| 18.5 | 58% | 42% | 75% |
| 19.5 | 47% | 53% | 66% |
| 20.5 | 38% | 62% | 58% |
| 21.5 | 31% | 69% | 53% |
| 22.5 | 25% | 75% | 45% |
Sample: 1,109 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 36%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 1:2
- Total games Under 19.5out · 35 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Felix Auger-Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aces | 14 |
| 0 | Double faults | 3 |
| 62% | First serves in | 71% |
| 62% | First-serve points won | 84% |
| 62% | Second-serve points won | 50% |
| 2/7 | Break points converted | 2/14 |
| 15/17 | Service games held | 15/17 |
| 62% | Service points won | 74% |
| 26% | Return points won | 38% |
| 101 | Total points won | 118 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| C. Ugo Carabelli | Tour | F. Auger-Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 60% | 62% | 69% |
| Return points won | 37% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 73% | 76% | 88% |
| Breaks of serve | 22% | 24% | 19% |
| Aces per service game | 0.30 | 0.83 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.25 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 26% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 12/21 | 28/44 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 62% | |
| Matches in the sample | 50 | 66 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
- 08/10/26WIlia Simakin#154ATP Shanghai · R1282:6 6:2 7:5
- 28/09/26LRinky Hijikata#85ATP Tokyo · Q12:6 3:6
- 24/09/26LFederico Cina#147ATP Chengdu · R323:6 2:6
- 01/09/26LJan-Lennard Struff#59ATP US Open · R1284:6 3:6 3:6
- 21/08/26LMoez Echargui#356Challenger Cancun · R162:6 0:5
- 19/08/26WNicolas Mejia#119Challenger Cancun · R327:5 6:4
- 13/08/26LMiomir Kecmanovic#61ATP Cincinnati · R1283:6 3:6
- 04/08/26LCameron Norrie#40ATP Montreal · R1286:7 4:6
- 20/07/26LTitouan Droguet#72ATP Estoril · R320:6 6:3 4:6
- 16/07/26LRoman Andres Burruchaga#62ATP Umag · QF2:6 6:2 3:6
Felix Auger-Aliassime
- 30/09/26LKaren Khachanov#27ATP Beijing · R323:6 3:6
- 03/09/26LKaren Khachanov#27ATP US Open · R647:6 3:6 2:6 2:6
- 31/08/26WRinky Hijikata#85ATP US Open · R1287:5 4:6 6:3 7:5
- 20/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#10ATP Cincinnati · R163:6 4:6
- 18/08/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#55ATP Cincinnati · R327:5 6:1
- 16/08/26WStefanos Tsitsipas#43ATP Cincinnati · R646:3 7:5
- 07/07/26LNovak Djokovic#8ATP Wimbledon · QF6:7 6:3 3:6 7:6 6:7
- 05/07/26WAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#26ATP Wimbledon · R166:7 7:6 6:3 6:7 6:1
- 03/07/26WMichael Zheng#94ATP Wimbledon · R327:6 6:2 6:1
- 01/07/26WDino Prizmic#97ATP Wimbledon · R647:6 6:3 7:5
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| C. Ugo Carabelli | F. Auger-Aliassime | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 5–1426% | 30–1370% |
| Clay | 18–1260% | 8–562% |
| Grass | 0–10% | 7–370% |
Head to head
C. Ugo Carabelli 0–1 F. Auger-Aliassime
- 25/05/22Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime0:6 3:6 4:6
Road through the tournament
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
- 08/10/26WIlia Simakin#154ATP Shanghai · R1282:6 6:2 7:5
Felix Auger-Aliassime
First match in this tournament.