Ugo Carabelli vs Simakin 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 69%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Simakin: 17 wins in a row; Simakin won 10 of the last 10 matches
Other tips
- 1st Set Winner: SimakinWon64%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Ugo Carabelli lost the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches, Simakin won the first set in 17 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
- Total Games: Under 25.5Lost65%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Ugo Carabelli: 7 matches in a row under 25.5 games
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Ugo Carabelli lost 0-2 in 7 of the last 20 matches, Simakin won 2-0 in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: C. Ugo Carabelli 30% · I. Simakin 70%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.7
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 70% | 30% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 62% | 39% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 56% | 44% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 47% | 53% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 40% | 60% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 39% | 62% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 35% | 65% | 34% |
Sample: 4,747 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Over 22.0in · 28 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aces | 5 |
| 3 | Double faults | 7 |
| 47% | First serves in | 69% |
| 71% | First-serve points won | 69% |
| 47% | Second-serve points won | 27% |
| 5/12 | Break points converted | 4/11 |
| 10/14 | Service games held | 9/14 |
| 58% | Service points won | 56% |
| 44% | Return points won | 42% |
| 99 | Total points won | 94 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| C. Ugo Carabelli | Tour | I. Simakin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 60% | 62% | 65% |
| Return points won | 37% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 73% | 76% | 80% |
| Breaks of serve | 22% | 24% | 27% |
| Aces per service game | 0.30 | 0.54 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.25 | 0.24 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 18% | 18% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 12/21 | 17/30 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 64% | 46% | |
| Matches in the sample | 49 | 66 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
- 28/09/26LRinky Hijikata#85ATP Tokyo · Q12:6 3:6
- 24/09/26LFederico Cina#147ATP Chengdu · R323:6 2:6
- 01/09/26LJan-Lennard Struff#59ATP US Open · R1284:6 3:6 3:6
- 21/08/26LMoez Echargui#356Challenger Cancun · R162:6 0:5
- 19/08/26WNicolas Mejia#119Challenger Cancun · R327:5 6:4
- 13/08/26LMiomir Kecmanovic#61ATP Cincinnati · R1283:6 3:6
- 04/08/26LCameron Norrie#40ATP Montreal · R1286:7 4:6
- 20/07/26LTitouan Droguet#72ATP Estoril · R320:6 6:3 4:6
- 16/07/26LRoman Andres Burruchaga#62ATP Umag · QF2:6 6:2 3:6
- 15/07/26WPablo Carreno Busta#65ATP Umag · R163:6 7:5 7:5
Ilia Simakin
- 06/10/26WRigele TE#849ATP Shanghai · Q26:3 6:2
- 05/10/26WLuka Pavlovic#207ATP Shanghai · Q14:6 6:4 6:1
- 20/09/26WRodrigo Pacheco Mendez#266Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · F6:7 6:4 6:3
- 19/09/26WHunter Heck#605Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · SF6:7 7:5 6:2
- 18/09/26WCruz Hewitt#331Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · QF6:3 6:1
- 17/09/26WBlake Ellis#462Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R166:4 6:2
- 15/09/26WTimofei Derepasko#662Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R326:4 6:3
- 13/09/26WArthur Weber#409Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · F6:4 7:6
- 12/09/26WMax Purcell#685Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · SF6:3 2:6 6:2
- 11/09/26WPhilip Sekulic#363Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · QF6:4 6:3
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| C. Ugo Carabelli | I. Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 4–1422% | 43–1278% |
| Clay | 18–1260% | 3–827% |
| Grass | 0–10% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
First match in this tournament.
Ilia Simakin
- 05/10/26WLuka Pavlovic#207ATP Shanghai · Q14:6 6:4 6:1
- 06/10/26WRigele TE#849ATP Shanghai · Q26:3 6:2