ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 64hardbest of three sets

Van de Zandschulp vs Michelsen 2:0: result and our tips

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Botic Van de ZandschulpATP #41Elo 1983hard 1960
2:0final6:4 6:4
Alex MichelsenATP #35Elo 2040hard 2032

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost59%

Where the number comes from: market alone 57% → with the players' profiles 59%

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Van de Zandschulp 15 of 20, Michelsen 13 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: MichelsenLost60%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Van de Zandschulp lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches, Michelsen won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

  • Match Winner: MichelsenLost65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 65%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Michelsen won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesLost44%

Where the number comes from: market alone 40% → with the players' profiles 44%

Michelsen: 3 matches in a row with a tie-break

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Botic Van de Zandschulp35%
Alex Michelsen65%

Elo: B. Van de Zandschulp 40% · A. Michelsen 60%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 B. Van de Zandschulp21%
2:1 B. Van de Zandschulp16%
2:1 A. Michelsen22%
2:0 A. Michelsen41%

First set

Botic Van de Zandschulp40%
Alex Michelsen60%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.573%27%68%
20.565%35%60%
21.559%41%54%
22.551%49%46%
23.544%56%39%
24.541%59%38%
25.538%62%34%

Sample: 5,444 matches

Games handicap

Alex Michelsen −2.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes44%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.5out · 20 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Botic Van de ZandschulpAlex Michelsen
3Aces5
2Double faults2
61%First serves in64%
78%First-serve points won68%
58%Second-serve points won52%
2/3Break points converted0/5
10/10Service games held8/10
70%Service points won63%
37%Return points won30%
68Total points won57

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

B. Van de ZandschulpTourA. Michelsen
Service points won63%62%65%
Return points won37%38%38%
Service games held80%76%81%
Breaks of serve21%24%23%
Aces per service game0.580.47
Double faults per game0.360.24
Sets with a tie-break24%18%
Tie-breaks won23/3716/28
Wins in straight sets66%71%
Matches in the sample6062

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Botic Van de Zandschulp

Alex Michelsen

Elo over the last year

Botic Van de ZandschulpAlex Michelsen

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

B. Van de ZandschulpA. Michelsen
Hard court23–1856%29–1566%
Clay7–750%6–746%
Grass2–340%3–260%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Botic Van de Zandschulp

Alex Michelsen

First match in this tournament.

See also