Challenger Santa Cruz 2Challenger 75Qualifying round 1claybest of three setsqualifying

Zeballos vs Heredia 2:1: result and our tips

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Federico ZeballosElo 1327clay 1331
2:1final6:4 3:6 6:3
Samuel HerediaATP #634Elo 1462clay 1486

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: HerediaLost64%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Zeballos lost the first set in 12 of the last 16 matches, Heredia won the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: HerediaLost68%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 68%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Zeballos lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Set Betting: Heredia 2-0Lost45%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Zeballos lost 0-2 in 10 of the last 16 matches, Heredia won 2-0 in 8 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Federico Zeballos32%
Samuel Heredia68%

Elo: F. Zeballos 29% · S. Heredia 71%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Zeballos18%
2:1 F. Zeballos14%
2:1 S. Heredia23%
2:0 S. Heredia45%

First set

Federico Zeballos36%
Samuel Heredia64%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

Expected total: 22.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.570%30%68%
19.562%38%59%
20.555%45%52%
21.549%51%47%
22.543%57%40%
23.539%61%36%
24.536%64%34%

Sample: 4,124 matches

Games handicap

Samuel Heredia −3.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes27%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Federico ZeballosSamuel Heredia
7Aces13
5Double faults2
56%First serves in55%
71%First-serve points won66%
49%Second-serve points won49%
4/10Break points converted3/7
11/14Service games held10/14
61%Service points won58%
42%Return points won39%
101Total points won97

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. ZeballosTourS. Heredia
Service points won59%62%59%
Return points won35%38%39%
Service games held70%76%72%
Breaks of serve18%24%26%
Aces per service game0.260.40
Double faults per game0.340.46
Sets with a tie-break0%9%
Tie-breaks won0/05/6
Wins in straight sets40%77%
Matches in the sample1729

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Federico Zeballos

  • 27/09/26LBruno Fernandez#567Challenger Curitiba · Q16:3 5:7 4:6
  • 10/08/26LErgi Kirkin#656Challenger Hamburg · Q23:6 3:6
  • 09/08/26WSamuele Pieri#320Challenger Hamburg · Q13:6 6:3 6:4
  • 26/07/26LFrancesco Forti#336Challenger San Marino · Q11:6 4:6
  • 06/07/26LLucas Andrade Da Silva#771Challenger Bogota · Q21:6 2:6
  • 05/07/26WArklon Huertas Del Pino Cordova#703Challenger Bogota · Q16:4 7:5
  • 29/06/26LLucas Andrade Da Silva#771Challenger Quito · Q22:6 3:6
  • 28/06/26WAndres UrreaChallenger Quito · Q13:6 6:3 6:4
  • 29/03/26LMaxwell McKennon#673Challenger San Luis Potosi · Q13:6 1:6
  • 23/03/26LQuinn Vandecasteele#473Challenger Morelia · Q14:6 3:6

Samuel Heredia

  • 06/10/26LEduardo Ribeiro#346Challenger Antofagasta · R323:6 4:6
  • 30/09/26LJoao Eduardo Schiessl#492Challenger Curitiba · R324:6 5:7
  • 28/09/26WJuan Sebastian Osorio#680Challenger Curitiba · Q27:6 5:7 6:4
  • 27/09/26WLeonardo Storck FrancaChallenger Curitiba · Q13:6 6:3 6:1
  • 18/08/26LLaslo Djere#179Challenger Cancun · Q13:6 4:6
  • 20/07/26LMassimo Giunta#390Challenger Segovia · Q21:6 4:6
  • 19/07/26WJohn Echeverria#555Challenger Segovia · Q16:4 7:6
  • 12/07/26LIzan Almazan Valiente#428Challenger Pozoblanco · Q16:1 4:6 1:6
  • 07/07/26LLorenzo Claverie#889Challenger Bogota · R326:7 7:6 1:6
  • 04/07/26LMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida#255Challenger Quito · SF3:6 6:4 4:6

Elo over the last year

Federico ZeballosSamuel Heredia

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. ZeballosS. Heredia
Hard court0–20%2–433%
Clay5–1033%11–1248%

Head to head

They have not met yet.