ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 64hardbest of three sets

Zhou vs Musetti 2:1: result and our tips

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Yi ZhouATP #277Elo 1655hard 1635
2:1final7:6(7) 3:6 7:6(1)
Lorenzo MusettiATP #25Elo 2097hard 2044

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost70%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

No third set in recent matches: Zhou 13 of 20, Musetti 18 of 20 (tour average 65%); Musetti: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 24.5Lost68%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Under 24.5 games in recent matches: Zhou 12 of 20, Musetti 17 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Yi Zhou18%
Lorenzo Musetti82%

Elo: Y. Zhou 9% · L. Musetti 91%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 Y. Zhou10%
2:1 Y. Zhou9%
2:1 L. Musetti21%
2:0 L. Musetti61%

First set

Yi Zhou25%
Lorenzo Musetti75%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes30%
no70%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.0 · 48%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.573%27%76%
19.564%36%67%
20.555%45%59%
21.548%52%53%
22.540%60%45%
23.534%66%39%
24.532%68%38%

Sample: 2,554 matches

Games handicap

Lorenzo Musetti −4.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 21.0in · 35 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Yi ZhouLorenzo Musetti
14Aces5
0Double faults3
76%First serves in67%
74%First-serve points won79%
50%Second-serve points won69%
0/2Break points converted1/5
15/16Service games held17/17
69%Service points won76%
25%Return points won32%
98Total points won108

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

Y. ZhouTourL. Musetti
Service points won63%62%64%
Return points won38%38%38%
Service games held80%76%81%
Breaks of serve23%24%24%
Aces per service game0.570.39
Double faults per game0.240.21
Sets with a tie-break21%11%
Tie-breaks won13/266/12
Wins in straight sets75%68%
Matches in the sample5445

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Yi Zhou

Lorenzo Musetti

Elo over the last year

Yi ZhouLorenzo Musetti

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

Y. ZhouL. Musetti
Hard court20–2050%22–1363%
Clay0–20%6–460%
Grass8–467%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Yi Zhou

Lorenzo Musetti

First match in this tournament.

See also