WTA 125 SamsunQuarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying

Aksu vs Crawley 2:1: result and our tips

·

Ayla AksuWTA #156Elo 1554hard 1560
2:1final3:6 6:3 6:4
Fiona CrawleyWTA #208Elo 1744hard 1707

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: CrawleyLost68%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 68%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Crawley won 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ayla Aksu32%
Fiona Crawley68%

Elo: A. Aksu 30% · F. Crawley 70%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Aksu20%
2:1 A. Aksu14%
2:1 F. Crawley22%
2:0 F. Crawley45%

First set

Ayla Aksu38%
Fiona Crawley62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 50%market (no margin): 49%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.576%24%70%
18.566%34%60%
19.558%42%53%
20.550%50%46%
21.544%56%41%
22.540%60%37%
23.536%64%33%

Sample: 2,017 matches

Games handicap

Fiona Crawley −3.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 21%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 20.5out · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Ayla AksuFiona Crawley
1Aces3
3Double faults7
62%First serves in58%
70%First-serve points won61%
39%Second-serve points won39%
5/8Break points converted4/7
10/14Service games held9/14
59%Service points won52%
48%Return points won41%
99Total points won88

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. AksuTourF. Crawley
Service points won55%56%53%
Return points won43%44%49%
Service games held62%63%57%
Breaks of serve35%37%45%
Aces per service game0.130.09
Double faults per game0.360.31
Sets with a tie-break8%8%
Tie-breaks won2/42/3
Wins in straight sets60%50%
Matches in the sample2115

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ayla Aksu

Fiona Crawley

Elo over the last year

Ayla AksuFiona Crawley

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. AksuF. Crawley
Hard court8–947%8–562%
Clay2–250%0–0
Grass0–02–167%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Ayla Aksu

Fiona Crawley