WTA WuhanWTA 1000Round of 64hardbest of three sets

Alexandrova vs Fernandez 1:2: result and our tips

·

Ekaterina AlexandrovaWTA #24Elo 1933hard 1916
1:2final4:6 6:3 3:6
Leylah FernandezWTA #25Elo 1897hard 1894

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won69%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 18.5 games in 4 of their 4 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.5Won39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Alexandrova 12 of 20, Fernandez 6 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ekaterina Alexandrova54%
Leylah Fernandez46%

Elo: E. Alexandrova 53% · L. Fernandez 47%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 E. Alexandrova32%
2:1 E. Alexandrova19%
2:1 L. Fernandez19%
2:0 L. Fernandez30%

First set

Ekaterina Alexandrova51%
Leylah Fernandez49%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 57%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%64%
19.561%39%56%
20.554%46%49%
21.549%51%44%
22.543%57%38%
23.539%61%34%
24.536%64%32%

Sample: 2,299 matches

Games handicap

Ekaterina Alexandrova −0.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Ekaterina AlexandrovaLeylah Fernandez
1Aces8
9Double faults5
46%First serves in62%
59%First-serve points won65%
47%Second-serve points won42%
5/19Break points converted6/9
8/14Service games held9/14
52%Service points won56%
44%Return points won48%
95Total points won104

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

E. AlexandrovaTourL. Fernandez
Service points won58%56%59%
Return points won42%44%43%
Service games held70%63%72%
Breaks of serve31%37%34%
Aces per service game0.430.22
Double faults per game0.400.38
Sets with a tie-break13%13%
Tie-breaks won5/155/17
Wins in straight sets67%71%
Matches in the sample5057

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Leylah Fernandez

Elo over the last year

Ekaterina AlexandrovaLeylah Fernandez

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

E. AlexandrovaL. Fernandez
Hard court18–1751%22–1559%
Clay1–517%8–753%
Grass5–456%1–420%

Head to head

E. Alexandrova 3–1 L. Fernandez

  • 06/01/25Winner: Ekaterina Alexandrova6:4 3:6 6:2
  • 29/08/23Winner: Ekaterina Alexandrova7:6 5:7 6:4
  • 15/08/22Winner: Ekaterina Alexandrova6:4 7:5
  • 03/01/22Winner: Leylah Fernandez3:6 4:6

See also