Challenger CaliChallenger 75Qualifying round 2claybest of three setsqualifying

Alves vs Pereira 0:2: result and our tips

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Mateus AlvesATP #399Elo 1507clay 1527
0:2final3:6 1:6
Jose PereiraATP #742Elo 1484clay 1495

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mateus Alves78%
Jose Pereira22%

Elo: M. Alves 55% · J. Pereira 45%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Alves55%
2:1 M. Alves22%
2:1 J. Pereira11%
2:0 J. Pereira12%

First set

Mateus Alves71%
Jose Pereira29%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 56%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.575%26%76%
18.565%35%68%
19.556%44%59%
20.549%51%52%
21.544%56%47%
22.538%62%40%
23.534%66%36%

Sample: 2,735 matches

Games handicap

Mateus Alves −4.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes24%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 16 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Mateus AlvesJose Pereira
2Aces5
4Double faults2
54%First serves in73%
60%First-serve points won79%
38%Second-serve points won43%
0/1Break points converted4/7
4/8Service games held8/8
50%Service points won69%
31%Return points won50%
39Total points won59

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. AlvesTourJ. Pereira
Service points won61%62%61%
Return points won37%38%40%
Service games held74%76%76%
Breaks of serve22%24%28%
Aces per service game0.440.25
Double faults per game0.280.14
Sets with a tie-break7%9%
Tie-breaks won2/41/4
Wins in straight sets73%70%
Matches in the sample2721

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mateus Alves

  • 18/10/26WBernardo Munk MesaChallenger Cali · Q16:4 6:3
  • 14/10/26LThiago Seyboth Wild#111Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R323:6 6:7
  • 12/10/26WBruno Fernandez#554Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q26:1 3:6 6:3
  • 05/10/26LJose Pereira#742Challenger Antofagasta · Q23:6 3:6
  • 04/10/26WBautista de la PenaChallenger Antofagasta · Q16:2 6:1
  • 01/10/26LGonzalo Villanueva#315Challenger Curitiba · R162:6 3:6
  • 29/09/26WJose Pereira#742Challenger Curitiba · R326:2 1:6 6:4
  • 13/07/26LJan Kumstat#192Challenger Bunschoten · Q23:6 3:6
  • 12/07/26WFons van SambeekChallenger Bunschoten · Q17:6 6:1
  • 06/05/26LHernan Casanova#394Challenger Santos · R327:6 1:6 2:6

Jose Pereira

  • 18/10/26WTristan McCormick#656Challenger Cali · Q16:1 6:4
  • 06/10/26LLautaro Midon#189Challenger Antofagasta · R323:6 6:4 0:6
  • 05/10/26WMateus Alves#399Challenger Antofagasta · Q26:3 6:3
  • 04/10/26WArklon Huertas Del Pino Cordova#669Challenger Antofagasta · Q17:6 6:3
  • 29/09/26LMateus Alves#399Challenger Curitiba · R322:6 6:1 4:6
  • 28/09/26WRyan Dickerson#697Challenger Curitiba · Q26:7 7:5 6:1
  • 27/09/26WRafael Tosetto#861Challenger Curitiba · Q16:4 3:6 6:3
  • 05/05/26LLorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez#519Challenger Santos · R326:7 2:6
  • 07/04/26LLautaro Midon#189Challenger Campinas · R324:6 6:3 4:6
  • 06/04/26WNatan Rodrigues#927Challenger Campinas · Q26:4 6:0

Elo over the last year

Mateus AlvesJose Pereira

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. AlvesJ. Pereira
Hard court1–233%0–0
Clay10–1442%10–1148%

Head to head

M. Alves 1–1 J. Pereira

  • 05/10/26Winner: Jose Pereira3:6 3:6
  • 29/09/26Winner: Mateus Alves6:2 1:6 6:4

Road through the tournament

Mateus Alves

Jose Pereira