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ATP Basel500Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Bertola vs Paul 2:0: result and our tips

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Remy BertolaATP #236Elo 1682hard 1644
2:0final6:2 6:1
Jakub PaulATP #993Elo 1650hard 1613

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Lost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Bertola: 5 matches in a row over 20.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.5Lost40%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Bertola: 5 matches in a row over 23.5 games; Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Bertola 12 of 20, Paul 7 of 18 (tour average 39%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Remy Bertola71%
Jakub Paul29%

Elo: R. Bertola 54% · J. Paul 46%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 R. Bertola48%
2:1 R. Bertola23%
2:1 J. Paul13%
2:0 J. Paul16%

First set

Remy Bertola67%
Jakub Paul34%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%68%
20.561%40%60%
21.555%45%54%
22.547%53%46%
23.540%60%39%
24.538%62%38%
25.535%65%35%

Sample: 4,557 matches

Games handicap

R. Bertola −3.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes40%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 15 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Remy BertolaJakub Paul
0Aces1
3Double faults2
55%First serves in54%
83%First-serve points won53%
65%Second-serve points won44%
4/13Break points converted0/1
8/8Service games held3/7
75%Service points won49%
51%Return points won25%
69Total points won45

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

R. BertolaTourJ. Paul
Service points won63%62%60%
Return points won37%38%38%
Service games held77%76%73%
Breaks of serve23%24%24%
Aces per service game0.440.22
Double faults per game0.330.09
Sets with a tie-break20%10%
Tie-breaks won15/313/4
Wins in straight sets58%63%
Matches in the sample6518

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Remy Bertola

Jakub Paul

Elo over the last year

Remy BertolaJakub Paul

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

R. BertolaJ. Paul
Hard court16–1946%3–538%
Clay10–1050%5–550%
Grass7–370%0–0

Head to head

R. Bertola 0–1 J. Paul

  • 12/03/24Winner: J. Paul4:6 3:6