ATP Brussels250Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Goffin vs Bertola 2:1: result and our tips

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David GoffinATP #657Elo 1773hard 1751
2:1final3:6 6:3 6:4
Remy BertolaATP #219Elo 1694hard 1657

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoWon60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Goffin: 7 matches in a row without a tie-break

Other tips

  • Match Winner: BertolaLost65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 65%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Goffin lost 8 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Games: Over 21.5Won57%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Bertola: 4 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.5Won41%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Goffin 8 of 15, Bertola 12 of 20 (tour average 40%); Bertola: 4 matches in a row over 23.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

David Goffin35%
Remy Bertola65%

Elo: D. Goffin 63% · R. Bertola 37%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Goffin21%
2:1 D. Goffin16%
2:1 R. Bertola22%
2:0 R. Bertola41%

First set

David Goffin40%
Remy Bertola60%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 48%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.570%30%68%
20.562%38%60%
21.556%44%54%
22.548%52%46%
23.541%59%40%
24.540%60%38%
25.536%64%35%

Sample: 5,537 matches

Games handicap

Remy Bertola −2.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.0in · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

David GoffinRemy Bertola
5Aces8
4Double faults4
58%First serves in61%
68%First-serve points won82%
51%Second-serve points won36%
3/6Break points converted2/11
12/14Service games held11/14
61%Service points won64%
36%Return points won39%
92Total points won91

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. GoffinTourR. Bertola
Service points won58%62%63%
Return points won37%38%37%
Service games held65%76%77%
Breaks of serve22%24%23%
Aces per service game0.300.44
Double faults per game0.260.34
Sets with a tie-break8%20%
Tie-breaks won1/315/31
Wins in straight sets67%58%
Matches in the sample1564

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

David Goffin

Remy Bertola

Elo over the last year

David GoffinRemy Bertola

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. GoffinR. Bertola
Hard court1–713%16–1847%
Clay2–433%10–1050%
Grass0–10%7–370%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

David Goffin

First match in this tournament.

Remy Bertola