Challenger RoanneChallenger 125Qualifying round 2hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Blanchet vs de Jonge 2:0: result and our tips

·

Ugo BlanchetATP #305Elo 1659hard 1679
2:0final6:4 6:3
Daniel de JongeATP #585Elo 1497hard 1524

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Lost56%

Where the number comes from: market alone 49% → with the players' profiles 56%

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Blanchet 13 of 20, de Jonge 6 of 7 (tour average 54%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 22.5Lost41%

Where the number comes from: market alone 37% → with the players' profiles 41%

Over 22.5 games in recent matches: Blanchet 12 of 20, de Jonge 6 of 7 (tour average 42%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ugo Blanchet81%
Daniel de Jonge19%

Elo: U. Blanchet 71% · D. de Jonge 29%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 U. Blanchet60%
2:1 U. Blanchet21%
2:1 D. de Jonge9%
2:0 D. de Jonge10%

First set

Ugo Blanchet75%
Daniel de Jonge25%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes30%
no70%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 53%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%71%
19.565%35%62%
20.556%44%54%
21.547%53%49%
22.541%59%42%
23.535%65%37%
24.531%69%35%

Sample: 2,685 matches

Games handicap

Ugo Blanchet −4.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Ugo BlanchetDaniel de Jonge
8Aces9
2Double faults6
52%First serves in58%
96%First-serve points won85%
71%Second-serve points won33%
2/7Break points converted0/4
10/10Service games held7/9
84%Service points won63%
37%Return points won16%
63Total points won44

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

U. BlanchetTourD. de Jonge
Service points won64%62%64%
Return points won35%38%36%
Service games held80%76%80%
Breaks of serve18%24%21%
Aces per service game0.460.58
Double faults per game0.230.28
Sets with a tie-break22%33%
Tie-breaks won11/253/6
Wins in straight sets55%100%
Matches in the sample497

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ugo Blanchet

Daniel de Jonge

  • 11/10/26WMaxime Janvier#640Challenger Roanne · Q16:4 6:2
  • 14/09/26LDaniel Masur#380Challenger Rennes · Q26:7 6:4 6:7
  • 13/09/26WLuca SanchezChallenger Rennes · Q16:4 7:6
  • 12/07/26LDimitar Kuzmanov#367Challenger Bunschoten · Q16:4 4:6 3:6
  • 08/07/26LYi Zhou#277Challenger Nottingham 3 · R167:6 1:6 1:6
  • 06/07/26WEmile Hudd#463Challenger Nottingham 3 · R327:6 6:4
  • 15/06/26LMichael Zhu#957Challenger Royan · Q26:3 6:7 4:6

Elo over the last year

Ugo BlanchetDaniel de Jonge

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

U. BlanchetD. de Jonge
Hard court17–1947%2–167%
Clay3–827%0–20%
Grass0–20%1–150%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Ugo Blanchet

Daniel de Jonge