Challenger Guangzhou NanshaChallenger 75Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Broady vs Palan 2:1: result and our tips

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Liam BroadyATP #233Elo 1643hard 1626
2:1final6:7(5) 6:4 6:2
Dominik PalanATP #620Elo 1470hard 1478

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won63%

Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 63%

Broady: 12 matches in a row over 19.5 games

Other tips

  • Match Winner: BroadyWon79%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 79%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Palan lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Liam Broady79%
Dominik Palan21%

Elo: L. Broady 70% · D. Palan 30%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Broady57%
2:1 L. Broady22%
2:1 D. Palan10%
2:0 D. Palan12%

First set

Liam Broady73%
Dominik Palan27%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes31%
no69%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 53%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%28%71%
19.564%36%62%
20.555%45%54%
21.547%53%49%
22.541%59%42%
23.535%65%37%
24.532%68%35%

Sample: 3,174 matches

Games handicap

Liam Broady −4.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes34%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 31 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Liam BroadyDominik Palan
4Aces15
7Double faults7
61%First serves in61%
83%First-serve points won71%
56%Second-serve points won42%
4/10Break points converted1/2
14/15Service games held11/15
72%Service points won60%
40%Return points won28%
106Total points won89

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. BroadyTourD. Palan
Service points won63%62%64%
Return points won40%38%34%
Service games held78%76%81%
Breaks of serve28%24%16%
Aces per service game0.290.66
Double faults per game0.200.44
Sets with a tie-break13%15%
Tie-breaks won8/165/11
Wins in straight sets66%64%
Matches in the sample5131

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Liam Broady

Dominik Palan

  • 19/10/26WSemen Pankin#430Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q26:4 6:2
  • 18/10/26WArthur Weber#403Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q16:7 7:6 6:4
  • 06/10/26LKeisuke Saitoh#478Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:7 4:6
  • 28/09/26LTerence Atmane#98Challenger Jingshan · Q11:6 4:6
  • 15/09/26LMartin Borisiouk#867Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R327:5 2:6 5:7
  • 07/09/26LHiroki Moriya#480Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R326:4 1:6 2:6
  • 31/08/26LMitsuki Wei Kang Leong#405Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q21:6 4:6
  • 30/08/26WJi Sung Nam#819Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q16:4 6:3
  • 10/08/26LSemen Pankin#430Challenger Astana · R321:6 4:6
  • 23/07/26LYanki Erel#284Challenger Segovia · R166:3 6:7 2:6

Elo over the last year

Liam BroadyDominik Palan

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. BroadyD. Palan
Hard court22–1559%14–1548%
Clay5–550%0–20%
Grass2–340%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Liam Broady

First match in this tournament.

Dominik Palan