Bublik vs Nakashima 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 41% → with the players' profiles 57%
A tie-break in recent matches: Bublik 14 of 20, Nakashima 10 of 20 (tour average 38%); Bublik: 3 matches in a row with a tie-break
Other tips
- Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost60%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Bublik: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set
- Total Games: Over 22.5Won61%
Where the number comes from: market alone 51% → with the players' profiles 61%
Bublik: 3 matches in a row over 22.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: A. Bublik 46% · B. Nakashima 54%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 25.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 75% | 25% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 67% | 33% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 61% | 39% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 53% | 47% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 46% | 54% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 44% | 56% | 34% |
| 26.5 | 40% | 60% | 30% |
Sample: 5,531 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Over 23.5in · 35 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Alexander Bublik | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Aces | 12 |
| 2 | Double faults | 2 |
| 74% | First serves in | 66% |
| 83% | First-serve points won | 81% |
| 76% | Second-serve points won | 49% |
| 1/1 | Break points converted | 0/0 |
| 17/17 | Service games held | 15/16 |
| 81% | Service points won | 70% |
| 30% | Return points won | 19% |
| 110 | Total points won | 91 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Bublik | Tour | B. Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 68% | 62% | 68% |
| Return points won | 34% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 86% | 76% | 87% |
| Breaks of serve | 17% | 24% | 19% |
| Aces per service game | 0.86 | 0.76 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.27 | 0.10 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 23% | 26% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 20/33 | 16/37 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 77% | |
| Matches in the sample | 55 | 58 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Alexander Bublik
- 09/10/26WTomáš Macháč#75ATP Shanghai · R646:4 7:6
- 01/10/26LJakub Menšík#15ATP Beijing · R324:6 6:7
- 04/09/26LTommy Paul#18ATP US Open · R324:6 6:3 7:6 1:6 3:6
- 02/09/26WAdrian Mannarino#83ATP US Open · R646:3 6:1 6:1
- 31/08/26WJeffrey John Wolf#223ATP US Open · R1286:4 6:2 3:6 6:1
- 25/07/26LQuentin Halys#48ATP Kitzbuhel · F4:6 6:7
- 24/07/26WTomás Martín Etcheverry#31ATP Kitzbuhel · SF6:3 6:4
- 23/07/26WAlex Molcan#84ATP Kitzbuhel · QF6:3 6:2
- 22/07/26WFacundo Diaz Acosta#69ATP Kitzbuhel · R166:3 7:5
- 16/07/26LQuentin Halys#48ATP Gstaad · R167:6 4:6 6:7
Brandon Nakashima
- 09/10/26WMatteo Berrettini#46ATP Shanghai · R647:6 7:5
- 01/10/26LUgo Humbert#32ATP Tokyo · R323:6 2:6
- 02/09/26LAlex Michelsen#35ATP US Open · R643:6 4:6 4:6
- 31/08/26WSebastián Báez#53ATP US Open · R1286:2 6:1 6:0
- 22/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#10ATP Cincinnati · SF5:7 3:6
- 21/08/26WTaylor Fritz#12ATP Cincinnati · QF7:6 4:6 6:3
- 19/08/26WNuno Borges#51ATP Cincinnati · R166:3 6:7 6:3
- 18/08/26WDaniil Medvedev#6ATP Cincinnati · R326:7 7:6 6:1
- 16/08/26WAleksandar Kovacevic#81ATP Cincinnati · R646:2 7:5
- 14/08/26LBen Shelton#4ATP Montreal · F3:6 6:7
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Bublik | B. Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 21–1068% | 26–1662% |
| Clay | 8–850% | 5–550% |
| Grass | 5–363% | 4–267% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Alexander Bublik
- 09/10/26WTomáš Macháč#75ATP Shanghai · R646:4 7:6
Brandon Nakashima
- 09/10/26WMatteo Berrettini#46ATP Shanghai · R647:6 7:5