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Challenger SeoulChallenger 175Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Cilic vs Zhang 1:2: result and our tips

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Marin CilicATP #96Elo 1898hard 1870
1:2final6:7(3) 6:2 3:6
Zhizhen ZhangATP #166Elo 1735hard 1689

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won74%

Where the number comes from: market alone 67% → with the players' profiles 74%

Cilic: 14 matches in a row over 19.5 games; Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Cilic 18 of 20, Zhang 15 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: CilicLost63%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 63%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Zhang lost 8 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesWon46%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 46%

A tie-break in recent matches: Cilic 6 of 20, Zhang 13 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Marin Cilic63%
Zhizhen Zhang37%

Elo: M. Cilic 74% · Z. Zhang 26%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Cilic41%
2:1 M. Cilic22%
2:1 Z. Zhang16%
2:0 Z. Zhang22%

First set

Marin Cilic59%
Zhizhen Zhang41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 48%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.574%26%62%
20.566%34%54%
21.558%42%49%
22.553%47%42%
23.546%54%37%
24.541%59%35%
25.539%62%32%

Sample: 5,731 matches

Games handicap

M. Cilic −2.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes46%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 30 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Marin CilicZhizhen Zhang
13Aces21
5Double faults6
65%First serves in71%
78%First-serve points won77%
53%Second-serve points won50%
2/3Break points converted1/5
13/14Service games held13/15
69%Service points won69%
31%Return points won31%
91Total points won91

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. CilicTourZ. Zhang
Service points won64%62%65%
Return points won35%38%34%
Service games held80%76%81%
Breaks of serve18%24%17%
Aces per service game0.760.69
Double faults per game0.270.17
Sets with a tie-break17%28%
Tie-breaks won6/1512/29
Wins in straight sets65%70%
Matches in the sample3644

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Marin Cilic

Zhizhen Zhang

Elo over the last year

Marin CilicZhizhen Zhang

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. CilicZ. Zhang
Hard court12–1250%8–1338%
Clay3–443%3–730%
Grass2–340%9–469%

Head to head

M. Cilic 1–0 Z. Zhang

  • 24/09/24Winner: M. Cilic7:6 7:6

See also