Challenger Guangzhou NanshaChallenger 75Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Zhang vs Zhou 0:2: result and our tips

·

Zhizhen ZhangATP #170Elo 1751hard 1706
0:2final3:6 4:6
Yi ZhouATP #280Elo 1699hard 1680

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Lost65%

Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 65%

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Zhang 15 of 20, Zhou 13 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 27.5Lost30%

Where the number comes from: market alone 28% → with the players' profiles 30%

Over 27.5 games in recent matches: Zhang 8 of 20, Zhou 5 of 20 (tour average 24%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Zhizhen Zhang46%
Yi Zhou54%

Elo: Z. Zhang 54% · Y. Zhou 46%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 Z. Zhang27%
2:1 Z. Zhang18%
2:1 Y. Zhou20%
2:0 Y. Zhou35%

First set

Zhizhen Zhang46%
Yi Zhou54%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 48%market (no margin): 48%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.573%27%62%
20.565%35%54%
21.558%42%49%
22.552%48%42%
23.545%55%37%
24.541%59%35%
25.539%61%32%

Sample: 5,477 matches

Games handicap

Yi Zhou −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes44%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 23.0in · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Zhizhen ZhangYi Zhou
9Aces7
3Double faults2
80%First serves in60%
73%First-serve points won100%
27%Second-serve points won63%
0/0Break points converted2/7
7/9Service games held10/10
64%Service points won85%
15%Return points won36%
42Total points won60

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

Z. ZhangTourY. Zhou
Service points won65%62%63%
Return points won35%38%37%
Service games held81%76%80%
Breaks of serve17%24%22%
Aces per service game0.690.56
Double faults per game0.170.23
Sets with a tie-break28%21%
Tie-breaks won12/2914/26
Wins in straight sets70%74%
Matches in the sample4352

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Zhizhen Zhang

Yi Zhou

Elo over the last year

Zhizhen ZhangYi Zhou

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

Z. ZhangY. Zhou
Hard court8–1240%19–1950%
Clay3–730%0–20%
Grass9–469%8–467%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Zhizhen Zhang

Yi Zhou