Challenger Guangzhou NanshaChallenger 75Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Matsuda vs Zhou 0:2: result and our tips

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Koki MatsudaATP #475Elo 1542hard 1540
0:2final1:6 3:6
Yi ZhouATP #280Elo 1688hard 1668

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Lost70%

Where the number comes from: market alone 66% → with the players' profiles 70%

Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Matsuda 15 of 20, Zhou 17 of 20 (tour average 71%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 22.5Lost38%

Where the number comes from: market alone 36% → with the players' profiles 38%

Over 22.5 games in recent matches: Matsuda 11 of 20, Zhou 12 of 20 (tour average 42%); Zhou: 3 matches in a row over 22.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Koki Matsuda18%
Yi Zhou82%

Elo: K. Matsuda 32% · Y. Zhou 68%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 K. Matsuda9%
2:1 K. Matsuda8%
2:1 Y. Zhou21%
2:0 Y. Zhou62%

First set

Koki Matsuda24%
Yi Zhou76%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes29%
no71%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 56%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.579%21%79%
18.570%30%71%
19.561%39%62%
20.552%48%54%
21.545%55%49%
22.538%62%42%
23.533%67%37%

Sample: 2,583 matches

Games handicap

Yi Zhou −4.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes32%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Koki MatsudaYi Zhou
3Aces7
3Double faults2
61%First serves in71%
52%First-serve points won86%
43%Second-serve points won67%
0/2Break points converted4/6
4/8Service games held8/8
48%Service points won81%
20%Return points won52%
34Total points won61

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

K. MatsudaTourY. Zhou
Service points won63%62%63%
Return points won36%38%37%
Service games held78%76%80%
Breaks of serve20%24%22%
Aces per service game0.520.56
Double faults per game0.170.23
Sets with a tie-break20%22%
Tie-breaks won13/1714/26
Wins in straight sets55%73%
Matches in the sample3451

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Koki Matsuda

  • 19/10/26WOmar Jasika#388Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q26:4 7:6
  • 18/10/26WMillen Hurrion#494Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q16:3 4:6 7:6
  • 06/10/26LEvan Zhu#462Challenger Wuning 3 · R323:6 3:6
  • 28/09/26LKeisuke Saitoh#478Challenger Jingshan · Q13:6 2:6
  • 15/09/26LArthur Weber#403Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R321:6 2:6
  • 10/09/26LPhilip Sekulic#339Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R162:6 6:4 5:7
  • 08/09/26WMartin Borisiouk#867Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R327:5 7:6
  • 02/09/26LMitsuki Wei Kang Leong#405Challenger Zhangjiagang · R163:6 2:6
  • 01/09/26WJake Delaney#357Challenger Zhangjiagang · R327:6 7:6
  • 31/08/26WFanming Meng#981Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q22:6 6:3 7:6

Yi Zhou

Elo over the last year

Koki MatsudaYi Zhou

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

K. MatsudaY. Zhou
Hard court20–1557%18–1949%
Clay0–00–20%
Grass0–08–467%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Koki Matsuda

Yi Zhou

First match in this tournament.