Challenger BragaChallenger 75Round of 16claybest of three sets

Damas vs Dodig 0:2: result and our tips

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Miguel DamasATP #349Elo 1624clay 1625
0:2final4:6 1:6
Matej DodigATP #174Elo 1830clay 1827

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Set Betting: Dodig 2-0Won56%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Damas lost 0-2 in 9 of the last 20 matches, Dodig won 2-0 in 9 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: DodigWon79%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 79%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Dodig won 8 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Games: Over 17.5Lost72%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 76% → with the players' profiles 72%

    Damas: 8 matches in a row over 17.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Lost31%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Dodig: 3 matches in a row over 24.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Miguel Damas22%
Matej Dodig78%

Elo: M. Damas 24% · M. Dodig 76%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Damas12%
2:1 M. Damas11%
2:1 M. Dodig22%
2:0 M. Dodig55%

First set

Miguel Damas29%
Matej Dodig71%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.574%27%76%
18.564%36%68%
19.555%45%59%
20.549%51%52%
21.543%57%47%
22.537%63%40%
23.534%66%36%

Sample: 2,681 matches

Games handicap

Matej Dodig −4.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 20.5in · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Miguel DamasMatej Dodig
—Aces—
10Double faults0
64%First serves in72%
48%First-serve points won64%
38%Second-serve points won47%
2/3Break points converted6/17
3/9Service games held6/8
44%Service points won59%
41%Return points won56%
58Total points won77

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. DamasTourM. Dodig
Service points won56%62%65%
Return points won42%38%37%
Service games held63%76%82%
Breaks of serve32%24%22%
Aces per service game0.140.56
Double faults per game0.270.18
Sets with a tie-break15%18%
Tie-breaks won11/2016/28
Wins in straight sets73%51%
Matches in the sample6067

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Miguel Damas

Matej Dodig

Elo over the last year

Miguel DamasMatej Dodig

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. DamasM. Dodig
Hard court4–640%16–1257%
Clay22–2844%26–1170%
Grass0–01–150%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Miguel Damas

Matej Dodig

See also