Darderi vs Arnaldi 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Darderi: 8 matches in a row under 26.5 games
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Darderi 6 of 20, Arnaldi 12 of 20 (tour average 35%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: L. Darderi 55% · M. Arnaldi 45%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.2
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 74% | 26% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 66% | 34% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 61% | 40% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 52% | 48% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 45% | 55% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 44% | 56% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 40% | 60% | 35% |
Sample: 5,597 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:0
- Total games Under 23.0in · 20 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Luciano Darderi | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aces | 6 |
| 1 | Double faults | 2 |
| 50% | First serves in | 76% |
| 90% | First-serve points won | 62% |
| 59% | Second-serve points won | 44% |
| 3/6 | Break points converted | 0/0 |
| 10/10 | Service games held | 7/10 |
| 74% | Service points won | 58% |
| 42% | Return points won | 26% |
| 71 | Total points won | 53 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Darderi | Tour | M. Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 60% |
| Return points won | 37% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 79% | 76% | 73% |
| Breaks of serve | 23% | 24% | 23% |
| Aces per service game | 0.48 | 0.37 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.22 | 0.28 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 18% | 23% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 14/29 | 14/26 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 51% | 20% | |
| Matches in the sample | 62 | 39 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Luciano Darderi
- 21/10/26LJames Duckworth#68ATP Almaty · R165:7 6:7
- 10/10/26LStefanos Tsitsipas#33ATP Shanghai · R643:6 4:6
- 02/10/26LKyrian Jacquet#79ATP Tokyo · R163:6 6:7
- 01/10/26WCasper Ruud#25ATP Tokyo · R327:6 6:3
- 08/09/26LAlexander Zverev#2ATP US Open · R162:6 2:6 6:7
- 05/09/26WDane Sweeny#112ATP US Open · R326:4 6:3 6:3
- 03/09/26WDalibor Svrcina#120ATP US Open · R646:3 6:7 6:4 6:4
- 31/08/26WHarry Wendelken#212ATP US Open · R1286:2 3:6 6:2 7:5
- 26/08/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Winston Salem · R161:6 0:6
- 25/08/26WMattia Bellucci#66ATP Winston Salem · R322:6 6:4 6:2
Matteo Arnaldi
- 19/10/26LLorenzo Musetti#26ATP Lyon · R321:6 4:6
- 10/10/26LTaylor Fritz#13ATP Shanghai · R645:7 4:6
- 08/10/26WBernard Tomic#179ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 6:1
- 03/10/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP Tokyo · R166:7 1:6
- 30/09/26WRei Sakamoto#125ATP Tokyo · R322:6 6:4 6:4
- 31/08/26LJames Duckworth#68ATP US Open · R1287:5 3:6 2:6 6:7
- 15/08/26LMartin Landaluce#67ATP Cincinnati · R644:6 6:4 4:6
- 07/08/26LTallon Griekspoor#50ATP Montreal · R326:3 4:6 3:6
- 05/08/26WFabian Marozsan#63ATP Montreal · R647:5 2:6 6:4
- 27/07/26LLorenzo Musetti#26ATP Washington · R320:6 1:3
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Darderi | M. Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 12–1446% | 4–1029% |
| Clay | 22–1167% | 14–767% |
| Grass | 1–233% | 2–250% |
Head to head
L. Darderi 0–1 M. Arnaldi
- 21/03/22Winner: M. Arnaldi5:7 7:5 2:6