Davidovich Fokina vs Tiafoe 2:1: result and our tips
·
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 64%
Over 21.5 games in 4 of their 4 head-to-head matches
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Over 24.5 games in 3 of their 4 head-to-head matches
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: A. Davidovich Fokina 39% · F. Tiafoe 61%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.9
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 72% | 28% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 64% | 36% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 58% | 42% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 50% | 51% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 44% | 56% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 42% | 58% | 34% |
| 26.5 | 38% | 63% | 30% |
Sample: 5,093 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Over 23.0in · 36 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Aces | 13 |
| 2 | Double faults | 2 |
| 63% | First serves in | 68% |
| 73% | First-serve points won | 77% |
| 68% | Second-serve points won | 57% |
| 0/1 | Break points converted | 1/7 |
| 16/17 | Service games held | 17/17 |
| 71% | Service points won | 70% |
| 30% | Return points won | 29% |
| 114 | Total points won | 112 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Davidovich Fokina | Tour | F. Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 36% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 84% | 76% | 84% |
| Breaks of serve | 21% | 24% | 22% |
| Aces per service game | 0.37 | 0.46 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.14 | 0.17 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 22% | 20% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 17/29 | 19/35 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 52% | |
| Matches in the sample | 54 | 62 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
- 09/10/26WJenson Brooksby#102ATP Shanghai · R646:1 6:3
- 01/10/26LMatteo Berrettini#46ATP Tokyo · R326:1 6:7 4:6
- 29/09/26WHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Chengdu · F6:4 7:6
- 28/09/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#124ATP Chengdu · SF4:6 6:4 6:3
- 27/09/26WAlexandre Muller#133ATP Chengdu · QF6:1 7:5
- 26/09/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#55ATP Chengdu · R166:4 6:4
- 16/07/26LAlex Molcan#84ATP Umag · QF6:3 1:6 2:6
- 15/07/26WMarco Trungelliti#90ATP Umag · R166:4 7:5
- 05/07/26LFelix Auger-Aliassime#5ATP Wimbledon · R167:6 6:7 3:6 7:6 1:6
- 03/07/26WMarton Fucsovics#134ATP Wimbledon · R327:6 6:2 6:3
Frances Tiafoe
- 09/10/26WYannick Hanfmann#57ATP Shanghai · R646:4 6:4
- 02/10/26LArthur Fils#11ATP Tokyo · R163:6 5:7
- 01/10/26WKei NishikoriATP Tokyo · R326:4 6:4
- 11/09/26LBen Shelton#4ATP US Open · SF6:4 3:6 3:6 5:7
- 08/09/26WAlex Michelsen#35ATP US Open · QF5:7 3:6 7:5 6:3 7:6
- 06/09/26WDaniil Medvedev#6ATP US Open · R167:6 6:4 7:6
- 04/09/26WValentin Vacherot#14ATP US Open · R326:4 6:2 6:4
- 02/09/26WRei Sakamoto#137ATP US Open · R646:3 7:6 7:5
- 01/09/26WMartin Damm Jr#104ATP US Open · R1286:4 4:6 3:6 6:3 6:4
- 23/08/26LArthur Fils#11ATP Cincinnati · F3:6 6:1 0:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Davidovich Fokina | F. Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 21–1166% | 28–1270% |
| Clay | 5–550% | 7–464% |
| Grass | 9–375% | 9–282% |
Head to head
A. Davidovich Fokina 1–3 F. Tiafoe
- 22/03/25Winner: Frances Tiafoe5:7 6:7
- 27/02/25Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina6:3 6:7 6:3
- 13/08/24Winner: Frances Tiafoe3:6 6:7
- 29/04/22Winner: Frances Tiafoe6:7 7:5 5:7
Road through the tournament
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
- 09/10/26WJenson Brooksby#102ATP Shanghai · R646:1 6:3
Frances Tiafoe
- 09/10/26WYannick Hanfmann#57ATP Shanghai · R646:4 6:4