ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 64hardbest of three sets
de Minaur vs Molcan: prediction and tips
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Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Alex de Minaur74%
Alex Molcan26%
Elo: A. de Minaur 79% · A. Molcan 21%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 A. de Minaur51%
2:1 A. de Minaur22%
2:1 A. Molcan13%
2:0 A. Molcan14%
First set
Alex de Minaur69%
Alex Molcan31%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 53%market (no margin): 52%
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.4
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 76% | 25% | 76% |
| 19.5 | 68% | 32% | 67% |
| 20.5 | 59% | 41% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 53% | 47% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 45% | 55% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 39% | 61% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 63% | 38% |
Sample: 3,923 matches
Games handicap
Alex de Minaur −3.553%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes40%
tour average 38%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. de Minaur | Tour | A. Molcan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 40% | 38% | 40% |
| Service games held | 81% | 76% | 78% |
| Breaks of serve | 26% | 24% | 27% |
| Aces per service game | 0.35 | 0.33 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.24 | 0.15 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 10% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 18/28 | 7/14 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 59% | |
| Matches in the sample | 65 | 55 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Alex de Minaur
- 06/10/26LNovak Djokovic#8ATP Beijing · F6:7 1:0
- 05/10/26WHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Beijing · SF6:4 3:2
- 04/10/26WAndrey Rublev#23ATP Beijing · QF1:6 6:2 6:3
- 03/10/26WQuentin Halys#48ATP Beijing · R163:6 7:6 7:5
- 01/10/26WMariano Navone#47ATP Beijing · R327:6 6:2
- 03/09/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#41ATP US Open · R644:6 5:7 2:6
- 02/09/26WAndrea Guerrieri#165ATP US Open · R1286:2 6:2 6:4
- 19/08/26LArthur Fils#11ATP Cincinnati · R163:6 4:6
- 17/08/26WArthur Fery#37ATP Cincinnati · R327:5 7:6
- 15/08/26WQuentin Halys#48ATP Cincinnati · R641:6 6:3 7:6
Alex Molcan
- 07/10/26WFederico Cina#147ATP Shanghai · R1284:6 6:1 6:2
- 02/10/26LKaren Khachanov#27ATP Beijing · R165:7 3:6
- 01/10/26WTomáš Macháč#75ATP Beijing · R326:3 6:2
- 29/09/26WMarco Trungelliti#90ATP Beijing · Q26:4 7:5
- 28/09/26WVit Kopriva#68ATP Beijing · Q17:6 2:6 7:6
- 08/09/26LJoao Lucas Reis Da Silva#230Challenger Tulln · R321:6 4:6
- 01/09/26LBenjamin Bonzi#92ATP US Open · R1284:6 6:3 3:6 2:6
- 04/08/26LChun Hsin Tseng#225Challenger Hagen · R326:2 3:6 0:2
- 23/07/26LAlexander Bublik#22ATP Kitzbuhel · QF3:6 2:6
- 22/07/26WDaniel Altmaier#67ATP Kitzbuhel · R166:3 3:6 7:5
Elo over the last year
Alex de MinaurAlex Molcan
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. de Minaur | A. Molcan | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 26–1563% | 8–947% |
| Clay | 7–654% | 23–1070% |
| Grass | 8–373% | 3–260% |
Head to head
A. de Minaur 0–1 A. Molcan
- 20/05/22Winner: Alex Molcan6:7 2:6
Road through the tournament
Alex de Minaur
First match in this tournament.
Alex Molcan
- 07/10/26WFederico Cina#147ATP Shanghai · R1284:6 6:1 6:2