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Challenger Sioux FallsChallenger 125Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Dietrich vs Smith 2:0: result and our tips

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Dylan DietrichATP #254Elo 1912hard 1878
2:0final6:3 7:5
Colton SmithATP #218Elo 1704hard 1682

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: DietrichWon60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Dietrich: 10 matches in a row winning the first set; Dietrich won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches, Smith lost the first set in 9 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: DietrichWon64%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 64%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Dietrich won 9 of the last 10 matches; Dietrich: 7 wins in a row

  • Total Games: Over 20.5Won60%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Dietrich 12 of 20, Smith 16 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Long shot
Set Betting: Dietrich 2-0Won42%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Dietrich won 2-0 in 13 of the last 20 matches, Smith lost 0-2 in 5 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Dylan Dietrich64%
Colton Smith36%

Elo: D. Dietrich 76% · C. Smith 25%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Dietrich42%
2:1 D. Dietrich22%
2:1 C. Smith15%
2:0 C. Smith21%

First set

Dylan Dietrich60%
Colton Smith40%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 48%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%62%
20.560%40%54%
21.555%45%49%
22.548%52%42%
23.542%59%37%
24.539%61%35%
25.536%64%32%

Sample: 5,649 matches

Games handicap

D. Dietrich −2.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Dylan DietrichColton Smith
3Aces5
4Double faults2
61%First serves in59%
70%First-serve points won69%
61%Second-serve points won55%
3/3Break points converted1/5
10/11Service games held7/10
66%Service points won63%
37%Return points won34%
67Total points won58

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. DietrichTourC. Smith
Service points won67%62%61%
Return points won40%38%39%
Service games held85%76%75%
Breaks of serve25%24%24%
Aces per service game0.680.42
Double faults per game0.240.24
Sets with a tie-break21%17%
Tie-breaks won9/1210/20
Wins in straight sets84%72%
Matches in the sample2650

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Dylan Dietrich

Colton Smith

Elo over the last year

Dylan DietrichColton Smith

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. DietrichC. Smith
Hard court12–380%19–1753%
Clay7–464%3–633%
Grass0–03–260%

Head to head

They have not met yet.