ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 64hardbest of three sets

Djokovic vs Hurkacz 0:2: result and our tips

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Novak DjokovicATP #8Elo 2279hard 2262
0:2final4:6 3:6
Hubert HurkaczATP #34Elo 2092hard 2046

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost62%

Where the number comes from: market alone 57% → with the players' profiles 62%

Djokovic: 9 matches in a row over 21.5 games; Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Djokovic 10 of 14, Hurkacz 15 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: DjokovicLost65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 65%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Djokovic won 8 of 8 head-to-head matches; Djokovic won 7 of the last 10 matches

  • 1st Set Winner: DjokovicLost60%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Djokovic won the first set in 6 of their 8 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 27.5Lost32%

Where the number comes from: market alone 30% → with the players' profiles 32%

Over 27.5 games in recent matches: Djokovic 5 of 14, Hurkacz 9 of 20 (tour average 28%); Over 27.5 games in 3 of their 5 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Novak Djokovic65%
Hubert Hurkacz35%

Elo: N. Djokovic 78% · H. Hurkacz 22%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 N. Djokovic41%
2:1 N. Djokovic22%
2:1 H. Hurkacz16%
2:0 H. Hurkacz21%

First set

Novak Djokovic60%
Hubert Hurkacz40%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 24.0 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 24.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.570%30%60%
21.562%38%54%
22.557%43%45%
23.548%52%39%
24.541%59%38%
25.540%60%34%
26.536%64%30%

Sample: 5,429 matches

Games handicap

Novak Djokovic −2.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes53%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 24.0in · 19 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Novak DjokovicHubert Hurkacz
2Aces13
1Double faults2
54%First serves in70%
67%First-serve points won82%
58%Second-serve points won53%
0/2Break points converted2/5
7/9Service games held10/10
63%Service points won73%
27%Return points won38%
52Total points won67

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

N. DjokovicTourH. Hurkacz
Service points won68%62%68%
Return points won36%38%35%
Service games held85%76%87%
Breaks of serve20%24%18%
Aces per service game0.520.94
Double faults per game0.190.20
Sets with a tie-break14%28%
Tie-breaks won10/1420/38
Wins in straight sets39%52%
Matches in the sample3148

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Novak Djokovic

Hubert Hurkacz

Elo over the last year

Novak DjokovicHubert Hurkacz

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

N. DjokovicH. Hurkacz
Hard court16–576%17–1259%
Clay2–250%8–562%
Grass5–183%4–357%

Head to head

N. Djokovic 8–0 H. Hurkacz

  • 24/05/25Winner: Novak Djokovic5:7 7:6 7:6
  • 16/11/23Winner: Novak Djokovic7:6 4:6 6:1
  • 09/07/23Winner: Novak Djokovic7:6 7:6 5:7 6:4
  • 02/03/23Winner: Novak Djokovic6:3 7:5
  • 06/05/22Winner: Novak Djokovic6:3 6:4
  • 06/11/21Winner: Novak Djokovic3:6 6:0 7:6
  • 05/07/19Winner: Novak Djokovic7:5 6:7 6:1 6:4
  • 27/05/19Winner: Novak Djokovic6:4 6:2 6:2

Road through the tournament

Novak Djokovic

First match in this tournament.

Hubert Hurkacz

See also