WTA 125 SuzhouQuarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying

Falei vs Sramkova 1:2: result and our tips

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Aliona FaleiWTA #197Elo 1641hard 1630
1:2final1:6 6:2 2:6
Rebecca SramkovaWTA #134Elo 1698hard 1688

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: SramkovaWon60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Falei lost the first set in 11 of the last 19 matches, Sramkova won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Aliona Falei37%
Rebecca Sramkova63%

Elo: A. Falei 42% · R. Sramkova 58%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Falei22%
2:1 A. Falei16%
2:1 R. Sramkova21%
2:0 R. Sramkova41%

First set

Aliona Falei40%
Rebecca Sramkova60%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 53%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.576%24%70%
18.567%33%60%
19.559%41%52%
20.552%48%46%
21.547%53%41%
22.542%58%37%
23.538%62%33%

Sample: 2,311 matches

Games handicap

Rebecca Sramkova −3.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 21%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 23 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Aliona FaleiRebecca Sramkova
3Aces7
8Double faults0
60%First serves in69%
60%First-serve points won65%
36%Second-serve points won56%
3/10Break points converted6/12
6/12Service games held8/11
51%Service points won62%
38%Return points won49%
70Total points won87

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. FaleiTourR. Sramkova
Service points won54%56%57%
Return points won46%44%43%
Service games held59%63%68%
Breaks of serve41%37%34%
Aces per service game0.200.37
Double faults per game0.440.27
Sets with a tie-break16%5%
Tie-breaks won6/82/6
Wins in straight sets46%75%
Matches in the sample2148

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Aliona Falei

Rebecca Sramkova

Elo over the last year

Aliona FaleiRebecca Sramkova

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. FaleiR. Sramkova
Hard court11–858%17–1750%
Clay0–20%6–650%
Grass0–01–150%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Aliona Falei

Rebecca Sramkova