Challenger OlbiaChallenger 175Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Fearnley vs Loffhagen 2:0: result and our tips

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Jacob FearnleyATP #96Elo 1913hard 1864
2:0final6:1 6:3
George LoffhagenATP #374Elo 1761hard 1767

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Lost69%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Fearnley 15 of 20, Loffhagen 15 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Long shot
1st Set Winner: LoffhagenLost48%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Loffhagen: 8 matches in a row winning the first set

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jacob Fearnley56%
George Loffhagen44%

Elo: J. Fearnley 64% · G. Loffhagen 36%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Fearnley36%
2:1 J. Fearnley21%
2:1 G. Loffhagen17%
2:0 G. Loffhagen26%

First set

Jacob Fearnley55%
George Loffhagen45%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 48%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%62%
20.561%39%54%
21.556%44%49%
22.548%52%42%
23.542%58%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.537%63%32%

Sample: 5,585 matches

Games handicap

Jacob Fearnley −1.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Jacob FearnleyGeorge Loffhagen
4Aces3
3Double faults1
71%First serves in60%
75%First-serve points won54%
60%Second-serve points won39%
5/10Break points converted1/4
7/8Service games held3/8
71%Service points won48%
52%Return points won29%
66Total points won43

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. FearnleyTourG. Loffhagen
Service points won62%62%66%
Return points won40%38%38%
Service games held75%76%82%
Breaks of serve26%24%22%
Aces per service game0.400.61
Double faults per game0.480.25
Sets with a tie-break21%18%
Tie-breaks won15/346/11
Wins in straight sets56%67%
Matches in the sample6228

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jacob Fearnley

George Loffhagen

Elo over the last year

Jacob FearnleyGeorge Loffhagen

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. FearnleyG. Loffhagen
Hard court21–2150%14–961%
Clay2–340%1–420%
Grass11–473%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Jacob Fearnley

First match in this tournament.

George Loffhagen