Fearnley vs Mrva 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Fearnley won the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches, Mrva lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Other tips
- Match Winner: FearnleyWon74%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 74%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Fearnley won 7 of the last 10 matches
Where the number comes from: market alone 37% → with the players' profiles 45%
Fearnley: 3 matches in a row under 19.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: J. Fearnley 68% · M. Mrva 32%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 21.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 72% | 28% | 79% |
| 18.5 | 64% | 36% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 55% | 45% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 49% | 51% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 42% | 58% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 36% | 64% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 34% | 66% | 37% |
Sample: 3,876 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 2:0
- Total games Under 21.0in · 19 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Jacob Fearnley | Maxim Mrva | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aces | 2 |
| 0 | Double faults | 1 |
| 66% | First serves in | 41% |
| 76% | First-serve points won | 67% |
| 75% | Second-serve points won | 44% |
| 4/6 | Break points converted | 1/2 |
| 8/9 | Service games held | 5/9 |
| 76% | Service points won | 53% |
| 47% | Return points won | 24% |
| 71 | Total points won | 45 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| J. Fearnley | Tour | M. Mrva | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 57% |
| Return points won | 40% | 38% | 44% |
| Service games held | 75% | 76% | 66% |
| Breaks of serve | 27% | 24% | 37% |
| Aces per service game | 0.41 | 0.26 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.48 | 0.33 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 20% | 11% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 14/32 | 7/17 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 53% | |
| Matches in the sample | 63 | 66 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Jacob Fearnley
- 15/10/26WJan Kumstat#192Challenger Olbia · R166:4 6:3
- 13/10/26WGeorge Loffhagen#450Challenger Olbia · R326:1 6:3
- 01/10/26LInaki Montes-de la Torre#185Challenger Porto 2 · R166:7 0:3
- 29/09/26WAlejo Sanchez Quilez#323Challenger Porto 2 · R326:1 6:2
- 02/09/26LTomás Martín Etcheverry#29ATP US Open · R643:6 3:6 6:3 3:6
- 30/08/26WMartin Landaluce#67ATP US Open · R1284:6 6:2 4:6 7:5 6:3
- 27/08/26LJurij Rodionov#137ATP US Open · Q36:4 4:6 4:6
- 26/08/26WLuka Pavlovic#207ATP US Open · Q26:4 6:7 6:4
- 24/08/26WRoberto Carballes Baena#259ATP US Open · Q17:6 6:3
- 21/08/26LTaro Daniel#179Challenger Quebec City · QF4:6 1:6
Maxim Mrva
- 15/10/26WFrancesco Maestrelli#171Challenger Olbia · R166:3 6:4
- 13/10/26WHynek Barton#271Challenger Olbia · R326:2 2:1
- 24/09/26LIzan Almazan Valiente#409Challenger Plovdiv 4 · R165:7 6:0 2:6
- 22/09/26WNikita Mashtakov#453Challenger Plovdiv 4 · R326:4 4:6 6:2
- 07/09/26LMarvin Moeller#226Challenger Tulln · R322:5
- 03/09/26LFederico Iannaccone#579Challenger Plovdiv 3 · R164:6 4:6
- 01/09/26WOleg Prihodko#442Challenger Plovdiv 3 · R327:5 6:7 6:1
- 20/08/26LJan Kumstat#192Challenger Prague · QF1:6 5:7
- 19/08/26WCezar Cretu#275Challenger Prague · R166:1 6:2
- 18/08/26WNerman Fatic#584Challenger Prague · R322:6 6:2 6:4
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| J. Fearnley | M. Mrva | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 22–2151% | 15–963% |
| Clay | 2–340% | 23–1955% |
| Grass | 11–473% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Jacob Fearnley
- 13/10/26WGeorge Loffhagen#450Challenger Olbia · R326:1 6:3
- 15/10/26WJan Kumstat#192Challenger Olbia · R166:4 6:3
Maxim Mrva
- 13/10/26WHynek Barton#271Challenger Olbia · R326:2 2:1
- 15/10/26WFrancesco Maestrelli#171Challenger Olbia · R166:3 6:4