WTA 125 LisbonQualifying round 2claybest of three setsqualifying

Feistel vs Lukas 2:1: result and our tips

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Gina FeistelWTA #332Elo 1515clay 1537
2:1final3:6 6:1 6:3
Tena LukasWTA #407Elo 1365clay 1377

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

No third set in recent matches: Feistel 7 of 8, Lukas 5 of 6 (tour average 67%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Lost42%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 19.5 games in recent matches: Feistel 6 of 8, Lukas 5 of 6 (tour average 48%); Lukas: 4 matches in a row under 19.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Gina Feistel69%
Tena Lukas31%

Elo: G. Feistel 72% · T. Lukas 28%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 G. Feistel43%
2:1 G. Feistel23%
2:1 T. Lukas16%
2:0 T. Lukas19%

First set

Gina Feistel60%
Tena Lukas40%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 52%market (no margin): 52%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.575%25%68%
18.567%33%59%
19.559%41%52%
20.552%48%45%
21.548%52%42%
22.542%58%37%
23.538%62%33%

Sample: 1,342 matches

Games handicap

Gina Feistel −3.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 25 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Gina FeistelTena Lukas
0Aces2
2Double faults12
62%First serves in52%
62%First-serve points won63%
57%Second-serve points won33%
6/9Break points converted4/8
9/13Service games held6/12
60%Service points won48%
52%Return points won40%
87Total points won69

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

G. FeistelTourT. Lukas
Service points won56%56%55%
Return points won44%44%45%
Service games held67%63%63%
Breaks of serve37%37%39%
Aces per service game0.120.28
Double faults per game0.360.59
Sets with a tie-break5%13%
Tie-breaks won0/10/2
Wins in straight sets100%67%
Matches in the sample97

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Gina Feistel

  • 11/10/26WElina Nepliy#491WTA 125 Lisbon · Q16:3 6:3
  • 14/09/26LBarbora Palicova#187WTA 125 Ljubljana · R325:7 1:6
  • 08/09/26LMaria Carle#238WTA 125 Antalya 4 · R327:5 5:7 6:7
  • 26/07/26LBriana Szabo#561WTA 125 Targu Mures · Q15:7 2:3
  • 17/07/26LVeronika Erjavec#144WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · QF2:6 5:7
  • 16/07/26WLaura Samson#128WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · R166:3 6:1
  • 13/07/26WJulia Avdeeva#194WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · R326:2 6:2
  • 12/07/26WDiletta Cherubini#397WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · Q16:2 6:2
  • 21/02/26LRebeka Masarova#171WTA Austin · Q12:6 4:6
  • 30/03/25LDefne CirpanliWTA 125 Antalya 3 · Q10:5

Tena Lukas

Elo over the last year

Gina FeistelTena Lukas

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

G. FeistelT. Lukas
Hard court0–10%0–0
Clay4–450%3–443%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Gina Feistel

Tena Lukas

See also