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ATP Brussels250Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Fils vs Michelsen 2:0: result and our tips

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Arthur FilsATP #8Elo 2195hard 2143
2:0final6:4 7:6(12)
Alex MichelsenATP #34Elo 2036hard 2026

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 24.5Won59%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 24.5 games in recent matches: Fils 17 of 20, Michelsen 15 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: FilsWon64%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 64%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Fils won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost32%

Where the number comes from: market alone 37% → with the players' profiles 32%

Michelsen: 3 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Arthur Fils64%
Alex Michelsen36%

Elo: A. Fils 66% · A. Michelsen 34%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Fils40%
2:1 A. Fils22%
2:1 A. Michelsen16%
2:0 A. Michelsen22%

First set

Arthur Fils59%
Alex Michelsen41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 55%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.568%32%60%
21.561%39%54%
22.555%45%46%
23.546%54%40%
24.541%59%38%
25.539%61%35%
26.535%65%30%

Sample: 5,652 matches

Games handicap

A. Fils −2.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes48%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 23 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Arthur FilsAlex Michelsen
6Aces2
0Double faults3
74%First serves in72%
79%First-serve points won66%
35%Second-serve points won44%
3/4Break points converted2/4
9/11Service games held8/11
67%Service points won60%
40%Return points won33%
84Total points won74

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. FilsTourA. Michelsen
Service points won68%62%65%
Return points won37%38%38%
Service games held86%76%82%
Breaks of serve23%24%23%
Aces per service game0.490.48
Double faults per game0.200.25
Sets with a tie-break20%18%
Tie-breaks won13/2316/28
Wins in straight sets65%73%
Matches in the sample5060

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Arthur Fils

Alex Michelsen

Elo over the last year

Arthur FilsAlex Michelsen

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. FilsA. Michelsen
Hard court27–1073%28–1467%
Clay9–282%6–746%
Grass1–150%3–260%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Arthur Fils

First match in this tournament.

Alex Michelsen

See also