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Challenger NingboChallenger 75Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Fomin vs Broady 1:2: result and our tips

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Sergey FominATP #291Elo 1483hard 1484
1:2final7:5 6:7(4) 2:6
Liam BroadyATP #231Elo 1633hard 1618

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won62%

Where the number comes from: market alone 64% → with the players' profiles 62%

Broady: 14 matches in a row over 19.5 games; Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Fomin 12 of 20, Broady 17 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: BroadyWon73%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 73%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Fomin lost 8 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
1st Set Winner: FominWon33%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fomin won the first set in 9 of the last 20 matches, Broady lost the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Sergey Fomin27%
Liam Broady73%

Elo: S. Fomin 32% · L. Broady 68%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Fomin16%
2:1 S. Fomin12%
2:1 L. Broady22%
2:0 L. Broady50%

First set

Sergey Fomin33%
Liam Broady67%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.571%29%71%
19.562%38%62%
20.555%45%54%
21.549%51%49%
22.542%58%42%
23.537%63%37%
24.535%65%35%

Sample: 4,286 matches

Games handicap

L. Broady −3.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes31%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 33 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Sergey FominLiam Broady
2Aces5
4Double faults7
61%First serves in64%
63%First-serve points won74%
51%Second-serve points won47%
3/7Break points converted4/11
12/16Service games held13/16
58%Service points won64%
36%Return points won42%
102Total points won114

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. FominTourL. Broady
Service points won60%62%63%
Return points won38%38%40%
Service games held72%76%78%
Breaks of serve25%24%28%
Aces per service game0.440.28
Double faults per game0.320.21
Sets with a tie-break14%14%
Tie-breaks won7/148/17
Wins in straight sets52%63%
Matches in the sample4353

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Sergey Fomin

Liam Broady

Elo over the last year

Sergey FominLiam Broady

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. FominL. Broady
Hard court13–1546%23–1659%
Clay8–753%5–550%
Grass0–02–340%

Head to head

They have not met yet.