Challenger CataniaChallenger 50Round of 32claybest of three sets

Forti vs Kolar 1:2: result and our tips

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Francesco FortiATP #336Elo 1649clay 1645
1:2final6:7(5) 6:2 6:7(5)
Zdenek KolarATP #196Elo 1646clay 1648

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoLost73%

Where the number comes from: market alone 70% → with the players' profiles 73%

No tie-break in recent matches: Forti 16 of 20, Kolar 19 of 20 (tour average 73%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 22.5Lost56%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Forti 15 of 20, Kolar 15 of 20 (tour average 60%)

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in recent matches: Forti 16 of 20, Kolar 15 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost44%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 20.5 games in recent matches: Forti 13 of 20, Kolar 14 of 20 (tour average 48%); Kolar: 4 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Francesco Forti52%
Zdenek Kolar48%

Elo: F. Forti 50% · Z. Kolar 50%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Forti33%
2:1 F. Forti20%
2:1 Z. Kolar19%
2:0 Z. Kolar28%

First set

Francesco Forti52%
Zdenek Kolar48%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%28%68%
19.563%37%59%
20.556%44%52%
21.550%50%47%
22.544%56%40%
23.540%60%36%
24.538%62%34%

Sample: 4,355 matches

Games handicap

Francesco Forti −0.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes27%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 34 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Francesco FortiZdenek Kolar
6Aces2
6Double faults9
66%First serves in55%
69%First-serve points won65%
33%Second-serve points won42%
7/16Break points converted5/8
11/16Service games held9/16
56%Service points won55%
46%Return points won44%
122Total points won118

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. FortiTourZ. Kolar
Service points won63%62%60%
Return points won39%38%40%
Service games held77%76%73%
Breaks of serve25%24%28%
Aces per service game0.420.21
Double faults per game0.190.34
Sets with a tie-break18%14%
Tie-breaks won12/229/22
Wins in straight sets62%79%
Matches in the sample5168

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Francesco Forti

Zdenek Kolar

Elo over the last year

Francesco FortiZdenek Kolar

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. FortiZ. Kolar
Hard court2–529%5–742%
Clay27–1761%28–2751%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

F. Forti 0–1 Z. Kolar

  • 12/04/22Winner: Zdenek Kolar2:6 0:6