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Challenger FlorenceChallenger 50Quarterfinalclaybest of three setsqualifying

Forti vs Roca Batalla 1:2: result and our tips

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Francesco FortiATP #323Elo 1674clay 1672
1:2finalrebuilt2:6 7:6(4) 0:6
Oriol Roca BatallaATP #288Elo 1688clay 1685

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

No third set in recent matches: Forti 15 of 20, Roca Batalla 15 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 23.5Lost60%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Under 23.5 games in recent matches: Forti 14 of 20, Roca Batalla 15 of 20 (tour average 64%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost44%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 20.5 games in recent matches: Forti 11 of 20, Roca Batalla 13 of 20 (tour average 48%); Roca Batalla: 4 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Francesco Forti51%
Oriol Roca Batalla49%

Elo: F. Forti 48% · O. Roca Batalla 52%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Forti31%
2:1 F. Forti20%
2:1 O. Roca Batalla19%
2:0 O. Roca Batalla30%

First set

Francesco Forti51%
Oriol Roca Batalla50%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%68%
19.564%36%59%
20.556%44%52%
21.551%50%47%
22.544%56%40%
23.540%60%36%
24.538%62%34%

Sample: 4,347 matches

Games handicap

F. Forti −0.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes29%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

Tip worked out after the fact from pre-match data — the board was not published yet at the time.

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 27 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Francesco FortiOriol Roca Batalla
2Aces1
2Double faults3
56%First serves in70%
58%First-serve points won67%
38%Second-serve points won58%
2/5Break points converted7/16
6/13Service games held11/13
49%Service points won64%
36%Return points won51%
73Total points won98

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. FortiTourO. Roca Batalla
Service points won63%62%63%
Return points won40%38%40%
Service games held78%76%79%
Breaks of serve27%24%28%
Aces per service game0.430.31
Double faults per game0.190.14
Sets with a tie-break20%18%
Tie-breaks won13/257/17
Wins in straight sets65%72%
Matches in the sample5243

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Francesco Forti

Oriol Roca Batalla

Elo over the last year

Francesco FortiOriol Roca Batalla

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. FortiO. Roca Batalla
Hard court2–340%0–0
Clay29–1862%25–1858%

Head to head

F. Forti 0–1 O. Roca Batalla

  • 12/06/23Winner: O. Roca Batalla4:6 3:6

Road through the tournament

Francesco Forti

Oriol Roca Batalla

See also