WTA 125 MallorcaRound of 16claybest of three sets

Geerlings Martinez vs Cortez Llorca: prediction and tips

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Ariana Geerlings MartinezWTA #505Elo 1547clay 1539
-:-
Lucia Cortez LlorcaWTA #395Elo 1499clay 1500

Our tips

Tip in 8h 13m

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Ariana Geerlings Martinez67%
Lucia Cortez Llorca33%

Elo: A. Geerlings Martinez 56% · L. Cortez Llorca 44%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Geerlings Martinez40%
2:1 A. Geerlings Martinez22%
2:1 L. Cortez Llorca16%
2:0 L. Cortez Llorca21%

First set

Ariana Geerlings Martinez57%
Lucia Cortez Llorca43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.0 · 49%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.567%33%59%
19.560%40%52%
20.553%47%45%
21.549%52%42%
22.543%57%37%
23.538%62%33%
24.535%65%31%

Sample: 1,409 matches

Games handicap

Ariana Geerlings Martinez −3.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. Geerlings MartinezTourL. Cortez Llorca
Service points won—56%54%
Return points won—44%48%
Service games held—63%59%
Breaks of serve—37%45%
Aces per service game—0.17
Double faults per game—0.58
Sets with a tie-break—19%
Tie-breaks won—2/3
Wins in straight sets—67%
Matches in the sample—6

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ariana Geerlings Martinez

  • 13/10/26WTea KovacevicWTA 125 Mallorca · R326:2 6:4
  • 15/09/26LAne Mintegi Del Olmo#207WTA 125 Valencia · R321:6 4:6
  • 15/07/25LAstra Sharma#576WTA Hamburg · R326:7 6:3 2:6
  • 14/07/25WElena Malygina#265WTA Hamburg · Q26:3 6:2
  • 13/07/25WSofia Shapatava#510WTA Hamburg · Q16:7 6:2 6:3
  • 11/06/25LSolana Sierra#101WTA 125 Valencia · R161:6 1:6
  • 10/06/25WLaura Pigossi#243WTA 125 Valencia · R326:4 6:3
  • 09/06/25WDiletta Cherubini#397WTA 125 Valencia · Q26:2 6:2
  • 08/06/25WAoi Ito#344WTA 125 Valencia · Q17:6 3:6 6:2
  • 21/04/25LAntonia Ruzic#93WTA Madrid · Q14:6 2:6

Lucia Cortez Llorca

Elo over the last year

Ariana Geerlings MartinezLucia Cortez Llorca

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. Geerlings MartinezL. Cortez Llorca
Clay1–150%3–350%

Head to head

A. Geerlings Martinez 0–1 L. Cortez Llorca

  • 08/06/24Winner: Lucia Cortez Llorca6:2 2:6 3:6

Road through the tournament

Ariana Geerlings Martinez

Lucia Cortez Llorca