Geerts vs McDonald 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Under 23.5 games in recent matches: Geerts 14 of 20, McDonald 15 of 20 (tour average 63%)
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Under 21.5 games in recent matches: Geerts 12 of 20, McDonald 12 of 20 (tour average 51%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: M. Geerts 67% · N. McDonald 34%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 75% | 25% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 67% | 33% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 59% | 41% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 54% | 46% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 46% | 54% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 41% | 59% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 35% |
Sample: 5,434 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 22.5out · 29 games
- Games handicapcovered
Match stats
| Michael Geerts | Niels McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aces | 10 |
| 3 | Double faults | 0 |
| 60% | First serves in | 78% |
| 83% | First-serve points won | 60% |
| 55% | Second-serve points won | 65% |
| 3/12 | Break points converted | 2/3 |
| 13/15 | Service games held | 11/14 |
| 71% | Service points won | 61% |
| 39% | Return points won | 29% |
| 95 | Total points won | 84 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Geerts | Tour | N. McDonald | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 58% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 77% | 76% | 69% |
| Breaks of serve | 23% | 24% | 22% |
| Aces per service game | 0.41 | 0.24 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.29 | 0.33 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 21% | 10% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/18 | 2/6 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 56% | |
| Matches in the sample | 37 | 27 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Michael Geerts
- 25/10/26WLeo Raquillet#702Challenger Brest · Q16:0 6:1
- 13/10/26LPavel Lagutin#388Challenger Catania · R324:6 1:6
- 30/09/26LEdas Butvilas#208Challenger Porto 2 · R324:6 1:6
- 28/09/26WJoao Domingues#563Challenger Porto 2 · Q23:6 6:4 7:6
- 27/09/26WVladyslav Orlov#518Challenger Porto 2 · Q17:6 6:2
- 22/09/26LCarlos Sanchez Jover#329Challenger Plovdiv 4 · R324:6 5:7
- 25/08/26LJay Friend#266Challenger Roehampton 2 · R323:6 4:6
- 20/08/26LLucas Poullain#328Challenger Roehampton · QF7:6 3:6 5:7
- 19/08/26WRadu Albot#561Challenger Roehampton · R164:6 6:4 6:4
- 18/08/26WBilly BlaydesChallenger Roehampton · R326:3 7:6
Niels McDonald
- 25/10/26WPierre Delage#565Challenger Brest · Q16:3 6:1
- 11/10/26LJakub Paul#993Challenger Roanne · Q13:6 7:6 5:7
- 28/09/26LNiels Visker#419Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · Q23:6 4:6
- 27/09/26WZaccharie CadoChallenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · Q16:2 6:2
- 01/09/26LEnrico Dalla Valle#304Challenger Porto · R323:6 4:6
- 25/08/26LCezar Cretu#278Challenger Augsburg · R322:6 0:6
- 14/08/26LMarvin Moeller#225Challenger Hamburg · QF4:6 0:6
- 12/08/26WEduardo Ribeiro#355Challenger Hamburg · R164:6 6:3 6:4
- 10/08/26WMika Petkovic#392Challenger Hamburg · R320:6 6:4 6:3
- 04/08/26LJerome Kym#222Challenger Hagen · R323:6 3:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Geerts | N. McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 17–1553% | 2–625% |
| Clay | 1–420% | 7–1237% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Michael Geerts
- 25/10/26WLeo Raquillet#702Challenger Brest · Q16:0 6:1
Niels McDonald
- 25/10/26WPierre Delage#565Challenger Brest · Q16:3 6:1