Challenger HelsinkiChallenger 175Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets
Guerrieri vs Ymer: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Andrea Guerrieri61%
Elias Ymer39%
Elo: A. Guerrieri 73% · E. Ymer 27%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 A. Guerrieri39%
2:1 A. Guerrieri21%
2:1 E. Ymer16%
2:0 E. Ymer23%
First set
Andrea Guerrieri58%
Elias Ymer42%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 52%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.2
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 75% | 26% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 66% | 34% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 59% | 41% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 54% | 46% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 46% | 54% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 41% | 59% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 39% | 61% | 35% |
Sample: 6,160 matches
Games handicap
A. Guerrieri −2.551%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes33%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Guerrieri | Tour | E. Ymer | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 60% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 43% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 74% | 76% | 79% |
| Breaks of serve | 32% | 24% | 17% |
| Aces per service game | 0.21 | 0.48 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.37 | 0.24 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 15% | 22% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 11/24 | 12/27 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 55% | |
| Matches in the sample | 71 | 53 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Andrea Guerrieri
- 19/10/26LAlex Michelsen#35ATP Brussels · R321:6 2:6
- 18/10/26WMartin Damm Jr#102ATP Brussels · Q27:6 6:7 6:3
- 17/10/26WKimmer Coppejans#219ATP Brussels · Q17:6 6:4
- 14/10/26LMaks Kaśnikowski#207Challenger Olbia · R163:6 4:6
- 12/10/26WAbdullah Shelbayh#305Challenger Olbia · R326:2 6:3
- 01/10/26LAugust Holmgren#265Challenger Porto 2 · R165:7 1:6
- 29/09/26WAnton Matusevich#330Challenger Porto 2 · R326:4 4:6 6:0
- 24/09/26LJesper De Jong#104Challenger Saint Tropez · R166:3 6:7 6:7
- 21/09/26WFrancesco Maestrelli#168Challenger Saint Tropez · R326:3 6:7 6:3
- 02/09/26LAlex de Minaur#9ATP US Open · R1282:6 2:6 4:6
Elias Ymer
- 08/11/26LJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#54ATP Stockholm · R321:6 6:7
- 27/10/26LYi Zhou#279Challenger Ningbo · R326:1 6:7 4:6
- 19/10/26LJames McCabe#287Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R320:6 7:6 6:7
- 13/10/26LMattia Bellucci#62Challenger Jinan · R322:6 1:6
- 05/10/26LMattia Bellucci#62ATP Shanghai · Q16:4 5:7 6:7
- 01/10/26LFederico Cina#139Challenger Jingshan · R166:3 3:6 4:6
- 30/09/26WTerence Atmane#75Challenger Jingshan · R324:6 7:5 5:5
- 22/09/26LAlexis Galarneau#192ATP Chengdu · Q15:7 6:7
- 18/09/26LMarat Sharipov#228Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · QF6:7 3:6
- 16/09/26WLuca Castelnuovo#434Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R167:6 6:4
Elo over the last year
Andrea GuerrieriElias Ymer
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Guerrieri | E. Ymer | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 21–1264% | 14–2437% |
| Clay | 24–1071% | 2–340% |
| Grass | 2–250% | 6–460% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
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