Challenger AntofagastaChallenger 75Round of 16claybest of three sets

Heide vs Ribeiro 1:2: result and our tips

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Gustavo HeideATP #116Elo 1824clay 1852
1:2final6:3 3:6 4:6
Eduardo RibeiroATP #346Elo 1574clay 1579

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost71%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

No third set in recent matches: Heide 16 of 20, Ribeiro 17 of 20 (tour average 66%); Ribeiro: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 23.5Lost71%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Under 23.5 games in recent matches: Heide 15 of 20, Ribeiro 17 of 20 (tour average 64%); Ribeiro: 6 matches in a row under 23.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Gustavo Heide83%
Eduardo Ribeiro17%

Elo: G. Heide 83% · E. Ribeiro 17%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 G. Heide61%
2:1 G. Heide22%
2:1 E. Ribeiro8%
2:0 E. Ribeiro9%

First set

Gustavo Heide76%
Eduardo Ribeiro24%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes30%
no70%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 57%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.577%23%84%
17.567%33%76%
18.557%43%68%
19.549%51%59%
20.543%57%52%
21.538%62%47%
22.533%67%40%

Sample: 2,054 matches

Games handicap

Gustavo Heide −5.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes19%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.0out · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Gustavo HeideEduardo Ribeiro
5Aces6
3Double faults4
62%First serves in68%
74%First-serve points won67%
63%Second-serve points won61%
1/7Break points converted2/5
12/14Service games held13/14
70%Service points won65%
35%Return points won30%
89Total points won87

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

G. HeideTourE. Ribeiro
Service points won63%62%61%
Return points won42%38%41%
Service games held78%76%74%
Breaks of serve31%24%28%
Aces per service game0.360.24
Double faults per game0.430.14
Sets with a tie-break8%13%
Tie-breaks won9/134/14
Wins in straight sets77%75%
Matches in the sample7149

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Gustavo Heide

Eduardo Ribeiro

  • 06/10/26WSamuel Heredia#634Challenger Antofagasta · R326:3 6:4
  • 30/09/26LPedro Sakamoto#482Challenger Curitiba · R323:6 4:6
  • 25/09/26LPedro Boscardin Dias#242Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · QF4:6 4:6
  • 24/09/26WFederico Coria#843Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R166:4 7:5
  • 22/09/26WPedro Martinez#130Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R327:6 6:3
  • 01/09/26LPedro Vives Marcos#542Challenger Porto · R326:7 4:6
  • 31/08/26WJelle Sels#579Challenger Porto · Q23:6 7:5 7:5
  • 30/08/26WNicolas Barrientos#948Challenger Porto · Q16:2 6:2
  • 24/08/26LSandro Kopp#316Challenger Augsburg · R321:6 7:6 1:6
  • 17/08/26LSumit Nagal#253Challenger Prague · R326:7 4:6

Elo over the last year

Gustavo HeideEduardo Ribeiro

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

G. HeideE. Ribeiro
Hard court1–517%1–150%
Clay45–1871%23–2449%
Grass1–150%0–0

Head to head

G. Heide 1–1 E. Ribeiro

  • 06/03/26Winner: Eduardo Ribeiro4:6 6:4 4:6
  • 27/09/23Winner: Gustavo Heide6:4 6:4

Road through the tournament

Gustavo Heide

Eduardo Ribeiro

See also