Heide vs Varillas 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 71% → with the players' profiles 74%
Heide: 11 matches in a row without a tie-break
Other tips
- 1st Set Winner: HeideWon65%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Heide won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches, Varillas lost the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
- Match Winner: HeideWon71%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 71%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Heide won 7 of the last 10 matches
Where the number comes from: market alone 37% → with the players' profiles 39%
Under 19.5 games in recent matches: Heide 14 of 20, Varillas 7 of 20 (tour average 41%); Varillas: 3 matches in a row under 19.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: G. Heide 63% · J. Varillas 37%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 70% | 30% | 68% |
| 19.5 | 61% | 39% | 59% |
| 20.5 | 54% | 46% | 52% |
| 21.5 | 49% | 52% | 47% |
| 22.5 | 42% | 58% | 40% |
| 23.5 | 38% | 62% | 36% |
| 24.5 | 35% | 65% | 34% |
Sample: 3,896 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 27%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 2:0
- Total games Under 22.5in · 22 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Gustavo Heide | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aces | 5 |
| 4 | Double faults | 2 |
| 59% | First serves in | 56% |
| 82% | First-serve points won | 73% |
| 63% | Second-serve points won | 63% |
| 2/2 | Break points converted | 0/3 |
| 11/11 | Service games held | 9/11 |
| 74% | Service points won | 69% |
| 32% | Return points won | 26% |
| 65 | Total points won | 54 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| G. Heide | Tour | J. Varillas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 62% |
| Return points won | 41% | 38% | 40% |
| Service games held | 78% | 76% | 76% |
| Breaks of serve | 30% | 24% | 28% |
| Aces per service game | 0.37 | 0.37 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.43 | 0.14 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 8% | 18% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 9/13 | 14/28 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 76% | 57% | |
| Matches in the sample | 69 | 67 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Gustavo Heide
- 20/10/26WAlex Hernandez#507Challenger Cali · R326:4 3:6 6:3
- 08/10/26LEduardo Ribeiro#355Challenger Antofagasta · R166:3 3:6 4:6
- 06/10/26WMaximo Zeitune#509Challenger Antofagasta · R326:3 1:6 6:4
- 04/10/26LGuido Ivan Justo#184Challenger Curitiba · F1:6 4:6
- 03/10/26WPedro Boscardin Dias#282Challenger Curitiba · SF6:2 6:3
- 02/10/26WLautaro Midon#189Challenger Curitiba · QF6:2 6:4
- 30/09/26WFelipe Meligeni Alves#396Challenger Curitiba · R166:3 6:4
- 29/09/26WHernan Casanova#394Challenger Curitiba · R326:2 6:1
- 11/09/26LMika Brunold#195Challenger Tulln · QF2:6 1:6
- 10/09/26WDiego Dedura#190Challenger Tulln · R166:1 7:5
Juan Pablo Varillas
- 19/10/26WDaniel Elahi Galan#368Challenger Cali · R326:3 6:3
- 06/10/26LFelipe Meligeni Alves#396Challenger Antofagasta · R323:6 1:6
- 25/09/26LJoaquin Aguilar Cardozo#328Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · QF2:6 4:6
- 23/09/26WMurkel Dellien#444Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R164:6 7:5 6:4
- 22/09/26WTomas Farjat#797Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R323:6 6:2 7:6
- 11/09/26LThiago Seyboth Wild#111Challenger Genoa · QF1:6 6:7
- 10/09/26WFrancesco Passaro#146Challenger Genoa · R167:5 6:1
- 08/09/26WFederico Arnaboldi#469Challenger Genoa · R325:7 7:5 6:1
- 06/09/26LMatej Dodig#138Challenger Como · F3:6 6:7
- 05/09/26WJay Clarke#238Challenger Como · SF6:7 7:5 6:1
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| G. Heide | J. Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 1–517% | 0–10% |
| Clay | 43–1870% | 40–2661% |
| Grass | 1–150% | 0–0 |
Head to head
G. Heide 1–0 J. Varillas
- 23/03/24Winner: Gustavo Heide6:4 6:2
Road through the tournament
Gustavo Heide
- 20/10/26WAlex Hernandez#507Challenger Cali · R326:4 3:6 6:3
Juan Pablo Varillas
- 19/10/26WDaniel Elahi Galan#368Challenger Cali · R326:3 6:3