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WTA 125 SopoRound of 32claybest of three sets

Hercog vs Lepchenko 2:0: result and our tips

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Polona HercogWTA #200Elo 1610clay 1635
2:0final6:2 7:6(3)
Varvara LepchenkoWTA #216Elo 1576clay 1580

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

How our tips did

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Polona Hercog55%
Varvara Lepchenko45%

Elo: P. Hercog 58% · V. Lepchenko 42%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 P. Hercog33%
2:1 P. Hercog21%
2:1 V. Lepchenko18%
2:0 V. Lepchenko28%

First set

Polona Hercog51%
Varvara Lepchenko49%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.566%34%59%
19.559%42%51%
20.552%48%45%
21.548%52%41%
22.543%57%37%
23.539%61%33%
24.536%64%31%

Sample: 1,494 matches

Games handicap

P. Hercog −1.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes22%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Polona HercogVarvara Lepchenko
2Aces0
3Double faults4
56%First serves in73%
64%First-serve points won51%
58%Second-serve points won53%
5/8Break points converted3/8
7/10Service games held5/10
61%Service points won52%
48%Return points won39%
73Total points won59

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

P. HercogTourV. Lepchenko
Service points won58%56%55%
Return points won47%44%44%
Service games held66%63%62%
Breaks of serve41%37%35%
Aces per service game0.220.21
Double faults per game0.250.24
Sets with a tie-break12%12%
Tie-breaks won6/107/14
Wins in straight sets62%50%
Matches in the sample3650

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Polona Hercog

  • 02/11/26LLeyre Romero Gormaz#111WTA 125 Cali · R320:6 1:6
  • 01/11/26WMaria Jose Rico SanchezWTA 125 Cali · Q16:0 6:0
  • 29/10/26LValeriya Strakhova#401WTA 125 Querétaro · R166:2 2:6 2:6
  • 27/10/26WMartina Capurro Taborda#320WTA 125 Querétaro · R327:6 7:5
  • 16/10/26LJessica Bouzas Maneiro#104WTA 125 Lisbon · QF6:4 1:6 4:6
  • 14/10/26WJazmin Ortenzi#187WTA 125 Lisbon · R166:3 3:6 6:3
  • 13/10/26WMadalena MatiasWTA 125 Lisbon · R326:0 6:0
  • 21/09/26LLeyre Romero Gormaz#111WTA 125 Tolentino · R327:6 1:6 6:7
  • 14/09/26LJulie Struplova#269WTA 125 Ljubljana · R326:7 2:6
  • 25/08/26LMoyuka Uchijima#120WTA US Open · Q13:6 3:6

Varvara Lepchenko

Elo over the last year

Polona HercogVarvara Lepchenko

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

P. HercogV. Lepchenko
Hard court0–10%8–1338%
Clay21–1362%14–1450%
Grass0–10%0–10%

Head to head

P. Hercog 2–2 V. Lepchenko

  • 06/07/17Winner: P. Hercog6:7 6:2 6:2
  • 07/06/16Winner: V. Lepchenko4:6 0:4
  • 15/01/13Winner: V. Lepchenko4:6 1:6
  • 04/04/12Winner: P. Hercog6:3 6:2

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See also