WTA 125 LisbonRound of 16claybest of three sets
Hercog vs Ortenzi: prediction and tips
·
Our tips
Tip in 7h 11mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Polona Hercog49%
Jazmin Ortenzi51%
Elo: P. Hercog 57% · J. Ortenzi 43%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 P. Hercog30%
2:1 P. Hercog19%
2:1 J. Ortenzi19%
2:0 J. Ortenzi31%
First set
Polona Hercog50%
Jazmin Ortenzi50%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 51%
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 66% | 34% | 59% |
| 19.5 | 58% | 42% | 52% |
| 20.5 | 52% | 48% | 45% |
| 21.5 | 48% | 52% | 42% |
| 22.5 | 43% | 57% | 37% |
| 23.5 | 38% | 62% | 33% |
| 24.5 | 36% | 64% | 31% |
Sample: 1,356 matches
Games handicap
Jazmin Ortenzi −0.550%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes23%
tour average 20%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| P. Hercog | Tour | J. Ortenzi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 59% | 56% | 53% |
| Return points won | 46% | 44% | 47% |
| Service games held | 68% | 63% | 57% |
| Breaks of serve | 39% | 37% | 45% |
| Aces per service game | 0.22 | 0.07 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.24 | 0.26 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 16% | 10% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 6/12 | 4/7 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 69% | |
| Matches in the sample | 33 | 30 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Polona Hercog
- 13/10/26WMadalena MatiasWTA 125 Lisbon · R326:0 6:0
- 21/09/26LLeyre Romero Gormaz#139WTA 125 Tolentino · R327:6 1:6 6:7
- 14/09/26LJulie Struplova#237WTA 125 Ljubljana · R326:7 2:6
- 25/08/26LMoyuka Uchijima#121WTA US Open · Q13:6 3:6
- 16/07/26LJeline Vandromme#123WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · R164:6 0:3
- 13/07/26WDalila Jakupovic#390WTA 125 Kitzbuhel · R326:2 2:6 6:4
- 23/06/26LBianca Andreescu#168WTA Wimbledon · Q14:6 2:6
- 18/05/26LAnna Bondar#66WTA Rabat · R321:1
- 01/05/26LXiyu Wang#91WTA 125 Huzhou · QF3:6 7:6 4:6
- 30/04/26WYufei Ren#291WTA 125 Huzhou · R165:7 6:1 6:4
Jazmin Ortenzi
- 12/10/26WBarbora Palicova#187WTA 125 Lisbon · R326:4 7:6
- 17/09/26LPaula Badosa#58WTA Sao Paulo · R166:4 2:6 2:6
- 16/09/26WChloe Paquet#313WTA Sao Paulo · R326:3 6:2
- 09/09/26LMary Stoiana#114WTA 125 Barranquilla · R323:6 2:6
- 24/08/26LHimeno Sakatsume#115WTA US Open · Q13:6 1:6
- 23/06/26LKatherine Sebov#228WTA Wimbledon · Q16:4 3:6 2:6
- 18/06/26LElizara Yaneva#146WTA 125 Brescia · R162:6 1:6
- 16/06/26WFrancesca Pace#274WTA 125 Brescia · R326:3 6:3
- 08/06/26LKaitlin Quevedo#76WTA 125 Modena · R323:6 4:6
- 07/06/26WViola Turini#503WTA 125 Modena · Q10:6 7:5 6:0
Elo over the last year
Polona HercogJazmin Ortenzi
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| P. Hercog | J. Ortenzi | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 0–10% | 2–433% |
| Clay | 18–1358% | 14–961% |
| Grass | 0–10% | 0–10% |
Head to head
P. Hercog 1–1 J. Ortenzi
- 24/11/25Winner: Jazmin Ortenzi4:6 6:3 1:6
- 18/11/25Winner: Polona Hercog6:2 6:2
Road through the tournament
Polona Hercog
- 13/10/26WMadalena MatiasWTA 125 Lisbon · R326:0 6:0
Jazmin Ortenzi
- 12/10/26WBarbora Palicova#187WTA 125 Lisbon · R326:4 7:6