Challenger CaliChallenger 75Qualifying round 2claybest of three setsqualifying

Hernandez vs Ribero 0:2: result and our tips

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Alex HernandezATP #507Elo 1487clay 1480
0:2final2:6 2:6
Franco RiberoATP #706Elo 1450clay 1457

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Won62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Ribero: 7 matches in a row without a deciding set

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 22.5Won56%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Ribero: 6 matches in a row under 22.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Won37%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 37%

Ribero: 6 matches in a row under 19.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alex Hernandez62%
Franco Ribero39%

Elo: A. Hernandez 53% · F. Ribero 47%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Hernandez40%
2:1 A. Hernandez22%
2:1 F. Ribero16%
2:0 F. Ribero22%

First set

Alex Hernandez59%
Franco Ribero41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 47%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%28%68%
19.563%37%59%
20.556%44%52%
21.551%50%47%
22.544%56%40%
23.540%60%36%
24.538%62%34%

Sample: 4,848 matches

Games handicap

Alex Hernandez −2.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes28%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Over 21.5out · 16 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Alex HernandezFranco Ribero
0Aces7
6Double faults1
61%First serves in65%
58%First-serve points won63%
15%Second-serve points won47%
2/4Break points converted6/10
2/8Service games held6/8
41%Service points won57%
43%Return points won59%
44Total points won61

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. HernandezTourF. Ribero
Service points won59%62%61%
Return points won38%38%39%
Service games held71%76%74%
Breaks of serve23%24%26%
Aces per service game0.190.29
Double faults per game0.360.20
Sets with a tie-break12%15%
Tie-breaks won5/109/15
Wins in straight sets77%76%
Matches in the sample3643

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alex Hernandez

  • 18/10/26WMatteo Covato#707Challenger Cali · Q17:5 6:4
  • 08/09/26LGabi Adrian Boitan#464Challenger Istanbul 3 · R326:7 4:6
  • 07/09/26WTuncay Duran#548Challenger Istanbul 3 · Q26:4 1:6 6:3
  • 06/09/26WCem IlkelChallenger Istanbul 3 · Q16:2 6:4
  • 31/08/26LMarek Gengel#419Challenger Manacor · Q17:6 3:6 0:2
  • 25/08/26LPaulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos#426Challenger Kingston 2 · R321:6 4:6
  • 20/08/26LAlan Magadan#504Challenger Cancun · R326:4 0:6 4:6
  • 02/08/26LMillen Hurrion#494Challenger Lexington · Q14:6 4:6
  • 28/07/26LBernard Tomic#180ATP Los Cabos · R321:6 0:6
  • 27/07/26WAlan Magadan#504ATP Los Cabos · Q26:3 7:6

Franco Ribero

  • 18/10/26WJesse Flores#813Challenger Cali · Q16:2 6:4
  • 11/10/26LMaximo Zeitune#509Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q13:6 4:6
  • 04/10/26LLorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez#519Challenger Antofagasta · Q13:6 2:6
  • 31/08/26LOleksandr Ovcharenko#616Challenger Plovdiv 3 · Q24:6 2:6
  • 30/08/26WDanial SpasovChallenger Plovdiv 3 · Q16:1 6:2
  • 16/08/26LGerard Campana Lee#440Challenger Sion · Q13:6 3:6
  • 09/08/26LNikita Mashtakov#453Challenger Todi · Q16:7 4:6
  • 04/08/26LRadu Mihai Papoe#274Challenger Plovdiv 2 · R324:6 6:1 3:6
  • 03/08/26WDragos Nicolae Cazacu#715Challenger Plovdiv 2 · Q26:3 6:1
  • 02/08/26WWilliam Rejchtman Vinciguerra#839Challenger Plovdiv 2 · Q16:4 1:6 6:1

Elo over the last year

Alex HernandezFranco Ribero

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. HernandezF. Ribero
Hard court8–1436%0–20%
Clay5–936%21–2051%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Alex Hernandez

Franco Ribero