WTA NingboWTA 500Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Mertens vs Fernandez 1:2: result and our tips

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Elise MertensWTA #15Elo 1974hard 1932
1:2final6:2 3:6 5:7
Leylah FernandezWTA #30Elo 1905hard 1901

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 25.5Lost68%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 25.5 games in recent matches: Mertens 15 of 20, Fernandez 17 of 20 (tour average 72%)

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Lost39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 19.5 games in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Elise Mertens55%
Leylah Fernandez45%

Elo: E. Mertens 54% · L. Fernandez 46%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 E. Mertens33%
2:1 E. Mertens20%
2:1 L. Fernandez18%
2:0 L. Fernandez30%

First set

Elise Mertens52%
Leylah Fernandez49%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%64%
19.561%39%56%
20.554%46%49%
21.549%51%44%
22.543%57%38%
23.539%61%34%
24.536%64%32%

Sample: 2,356 matches

Games handicap

Elise Mertens −0.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 23%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 29 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Elise MertensLeylah Fernandez
0Aces1
7Double faults11
89%First serves in82%
50%First-serve points won55%
50%Second-serve points won37%
7/14Break points converted7/12
7/14Service games held8/15
50%Service points won52%
49%Return points won50%
94Total points won97

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

E. MertensTourL. Fernandez
Service points won60%56%59%
Return points won44%44%42%
Service games held71%63%71%
Breaks of serve36%37%33%
Aces per service game0.400.23
Double faults per game0.400.41
Sets with a tie-break5%13%
Tie-breaks won4/64/16
Wins in straight sets73%71%
Matches in the sample5055

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Elise Mertens

Leylah Fernandez

Elo over the last year

Elise MertensLeylah Fernandez

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

E. MertensL. Fernandez
Hard court18–1260%19–1654%
Clay5–456%8–753%
Grass7–464%1–420%

Head to head

E. Mertens 2–1 L. Fernandez

  • 16/02/25Winner: Elise Mertens6:2 6:2
  • 19/09/23Winner: Leylah Fernandez3:6 4:6
  • 09/02/21Winner: Elise Mertens6:1 6:3

See also