WTA WuhanWTA 1000Round of 16hardbest of three sets
Fernandez vs Ostapenko: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 5h 20mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Leylah Fernandez54%
Jeļena Ostapenko46%
Elo: L. Fernandez 55% · J. Ostapenko 45%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 L. Fernandez33%
2:1 L. Fernandez19%
2:1 J. Ostapenko19%
2:0 J. Ostapenko30%
First set
Leylah Fernandez51%
Jeļena Ostapenko49%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 21.0 · 49%market (no margin): 51%
The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 69% | 31% | 64% |
| 19.5 | 61% | 39% | 56% |
| 20.5 | 54% | 46% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 49% | 51% | 44% |
| 22.5 | 43% | 57% | 38% |
| 23.5 | 39% | 62% | 34% |
| 24.5 | 36% | 64% | 32% |
Sample: 2,320 matches
Games handicap
Leylah Fernandez −0.551%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes25%
tour average 23%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Fernandez | Tour | J. Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 59% | 56% | 56% |
| Return points won | 43% | 44% | 45% |
| Service games held | 71% | 63% | 64% |
| Breaks of serve | 34% | 37% | 39% |
| Aces per service game | 0.22 | 0.36 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.39 | 0.56 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 13% | 7% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 5/17 | 4/7 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 68% | |
| Matches in the sample | 58 | 45 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Leylah Fernandez
- 14/10/26WHan Shi#217WTA Wuhan · R326:3 6:4
- 12/10/26WEkaterina Alexandrova#24WTA Wuhan · R646:4 3:6 6:3
- 03/10/26LKamilla Rakhimova#69WTA Beijing · R642:6 6:4 3:6
- 27/09/26WTalia Gibson#41WTA Singapore · F7:5 6:0
- 26/09/26WMaja Chwalińska#22WTA Singapore · SF1:6 6:4 6:2
- 25/09/26WMirra Andreeva#3WTA Singapore · QF6:2 7:5
- 23/09/26WAlycia Parks#64WTA Singapore · R166:4 6:3
- 21/09/26WKyoka Okamura#244WTA Singapore · R326:2 6:3
- 04/09/26LJessica Pegula#4WTA US Open · R326:1 4:6 3:6
- 02/09/26WMananchaya Sawangkaew#83WTA US Open · R646:4 6:1
Jeļena Ostapenko
- 14/10/26WJessica Pegula#4WTA Wuhan · R322:6 7:6 6:3
- 13/10/26WDaria Kasatkina#82WTA Wuhan · R646:1 6:1
- 05/10/26LElise Mertens#14WTA Beijing · R322:6 6:3 3:6
- 03/10/26WPaula Badosa#58WTA Beijing · R647:6 7:5
- 24/09/26LTaylah Preston#86WTA Seoul · R164:6 1:6
- 22/09/26WAnastasia Zakharova#111WTA Seoul · R326:4 6:1
- 01/09/26LTatjana Maria#71WTA US Open · R1286:4 1:6 2:6
- 15/08/26LMagdalena Fręch#56WTA Cincinnati · R641:6 3:6
- 04/08/26LShuai Zhang#81WTA Toronto · R640:6 0:4
- 03/07/26LAryna Sabalenka#2WTA Wimbledon · R324:6 4:6
Elo over the last year
Leylah FernandezJeļena Ostapenko
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Fernandez | J. Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 23–1561% | 13–1350% |
| Clay | 8–753% | 7–558% |
| Grass | 1–420% | 5–271% |
Head to head
L. Fernandez 0–1 J. Ostapenko
- 30/06/21Winner: Jeļena Ostapenko1:6 2:6
Road through the tournament
Leylah Fernandez
- 12/10/26WEkaterina Alexandrova#24WTA Wuhan · R646:4 3:6 6:3
- 14/10/26WHan Shi#217WTA Wuhan · R326:3 6:4
Jeļena Ostapenko
- 13/10/26WDaria Kasatkina#82WTA Wuhan · R646:1 6:1
- 14/10/26WJessica Pegula#4WTA Wuhan · R322:6 7:6 6:3