Challenger Wuning 3Challenger 50Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Moriya vs Saitoh 0:2: result and our tips

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Hiroki MoriyaATP #505Elo 1517hard 1507
0:2final2:6 3:6
Keisuke SaitohATP #550Elo 1466hard 1464

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Hiroki Moriya48%
Keisuke Saitoh52%

Elo: H. Moriya 56% · K. Saitoh 44%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 H. Moriya29%
2:1 H. Moriya19%
2:1 K. Saitoh20%
2:0 K. Saitoh33%

First set

Hiroki Moriya48%
Keisuke Saitoh52%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 49%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%62%
20.559%41%54%
21.554%46%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.542%59%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.536%64%32%

Sample: 5,128 matches

Games handicap

Keisuke Saitoh −0.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes35%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Hiroki MoriyaKeisuke Saitoh
1Aces3
0Double faults1
58%First serves in73%
62%First-serve points won78%
63%Second-serve points won64%
0/0Break points converted3/6
5/8Service games held9/9
62%Service points won75%
26%Return points won38%
41Total points won55

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

H. MoriyaTourK. Saitoh
Service points won61%62%64%
Return points won39%38%39%
Service games held74%76%79%
Breaks of serve27%24%27%
Aces per service game0.230.27
Double faults per game0.300.17
Sets with a tie-break20%7%
Tie-breaks won8/241/1
Wins in straight sets56%75%
Matches in the sample516

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Hiroki Moriya

  • 06/10/26WKeegan Smith#202Challenger Wuning 3 · R323:6 7:6 6:3
  • 29/09/26LOmar Jasika#422Challenger Jingshan · Q24:6 4:6
  • 28/09/26WJilong HuangChallenger Jingshan · Q16:0 6:4
  • 15/09/26LBlake Ellis#462Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R324:6 7:5 3:6
  • 11/09/26LYuta Shimizu#393Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · QF7:5 5:7 6:7
  • 09/09/26WMaximus Jones#496Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R166:3 7:6
  • 07/09/26WDominik Palan#631Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R324:6 6:1 6:2
  • 01/09/26LKasidit Samrej#397Challenger Zhangjiagang · R321:6 6:7
  • 31/08/26WS D Prajwal Dev#670Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q26:1 6:1
  • 30/08/26WGrigoriy Lomakin#865Challenger Zhangjiagang · Q16:1 6:3

Keisuke Saitoh

  • 06/10/26WDominik Palan#631Challenger Wuning 3 · R327:6 6:4
  • 05/10/26WYusuke Takahashi#727Challenger Wuning 3 · Q24:6 6:3 6:2
  • 04/10/26WZicong WangChallenger Wuning 3 · Q16:1 6:0
  • 29/09/26LMattia Bellucci#86Challenger Jingshan · Q22:6 2:6
  • 28/09/26WKoki Matsuda#481Challenger Jingshan · Q16:3 6:2
  • 02/11/25LKoki Matsuda#481Challenger Matsuyama · Q15:7 7:5 4:6
  • 14/07/25LAndres Martin#338Challenger Granby · Q11:6 5:7
  • 07/07/25LQuinn Vandecasteele#473Challenger Newport · Q24:6 6:7
  • 06/07/25WHans Hach VerdugoChallenger Newport · Q16:2 7:6
  • 01/06/25LYibing Wu#113Challenger Tyler · Q11:6 3:6

Elo over the last year

Hiroki MoriyaKeisuke Saitoh

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

H. MoriyaK. Saitoh
Hard court23–2548%4–267%
Clay1–150%0–0
Grass1–150%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Hiroki Moriya

Keisuke Saitoh

  • 04/10/26WZicong WangChallenger Wuning 3 · Q16:1 6:0
  • 05/10/26WYusuke Takahashi#727Challenger Wuning 3 · Q24:6 6:3 6:2
  • 06/10/26WDominik Palan#631Challenger Wuning 3 · R327:6 6:4

See also