ATP Lyon250Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Mrva vs Lajovic 2:0: result and our tips

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Maxim MrvaATP #234Elo 1751hard 1739
2:0final7:6(4) 7:6(5)
Dusan LajovicATP #162Elo 1819hard 1760

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoLost64%

Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 64%

Lajovic: 5 matches in a row without a tie-break

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Won60%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Lajovic: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

  • Total Games: Under 23.5Lost56%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Lajovic: 5 matches in a row under 23.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost38%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 38%

Lajovic: 5 matches in a row under 20.5 games; Under 20.5 games in recent matches: Mrva 12 of 20, Lajovic 8 of 20 (tour average 40%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Maxim Mrva44%
Dusan Lajovic56%

Elo: M. Mrva 47% · D. Lajovic 53%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Mrva25%
2:1 M. Mrva20%
2:1 D. Lajovic21%
2:0 D. Lajovic35%

First set

Maxim Mrva46%
Dusan Lajovic54%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 48%market (no margin): 49%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%68%
20.563%38%60%
21.556%44%54%
22.548%52%46%
23.544%56%39%
24.541%59%38%
25.537%63%35%

Sample: 5,639 matches

Games handicap

Dusan Lajovic −1.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes36%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.0in · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Maxim MrvaDusan Lajovic
10Aces3
2Double faults1
58%First serves in64%
64%First-serve points won63%
43%Second-serve points won48%
4/8Break points converted4/10
8/12Service games held8/12
55%Service points won57%
43%Return points won45%
87Total points won89

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. MrvaTourD. Lajovic
Service points won57%62%64%
Return points won43%38%37%
Service games held66%76%79%
Breaks of serve37%24%21%
Aces per service game0.260.37
Double faults per game0.320.15
Sets with a tie-break12%16%
Tie-breaks won7/1812/23
Wins in straight sets51%63%
Matches in the sample6659

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Maxim Mrva

Dusan Lajovic

Elo over the last year

Maxim MrvaDusan Lajovic

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. MrvaD. Lajovic
Hard court13–1057%11–955%
Clay23–1955%17–1849%
Grass0–02–250%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

See also