Challenger OlbiaChallenger 175Round of 16hardbest of three sets
Nardi vs Carboni: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 9h 20mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Luca Nardi75%
Lorenzo Carboni25%
Elo: L. Nardi 78% · L. Carboni 22%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 L. Nardi53%
2:1 L. Nardi22%
2:1 L. Carboni11%
2:0 L. Carboni14%
First set
Luca Nardi69%
Lorenzo Carboni31%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 49%market (no margin): 50%
The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 75% | 25% | 79% |
| 18.5 | 67% | 33% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 58% | 42% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 51% | 49% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 45% | 55% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 38% | 62% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 35% | 66% | 37% |
Sample: 3,755 matches
Games handicap
Luca Nardi −4.545%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes25%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Nardi | Tour | L. Carboni | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 58% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 40% |
| Service games held | 75% | 76% | 67% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 30% |
| Aces per service game | 0.35 | 0.19 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.26 | 0.23 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 21% | 12% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 8/20 | 5/12 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 77% | 58% | |
| Matches in the sample | 38 | 43 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Luca Nardi
- 13/10/26WAugust Holmgren#236Challenger Olbia · R324:6 6:4 6:4
- 05/10/26LPablo Llamas Ruiz#144Challenger Villena · R321:6 6:7
- 25/08/26LFederico Cina#147ATP US Open · Q14:6 0:3
- 11/07/26LAndrea Guerrieri#165ATP Umag · Q13:6 6:7
- 24/06/26LOtto Virtanen#107ATP Wimbledon · Q24:6 4:6
- 22/06/26WRio Noguchi#221ATP Wimbledon · Q16:2 6:3
- 15/06/26LRemy Bertola#227Challenger Nottingham 2 · R326:3 6:7 6:7
- 14/06/26WGiles Hussey#311Challenger Nottingham 2 · Q16:3 6:2
- 13/06/26WOscar Weightman#811Challenger Nottingham 2 · Q13:6 6:3 6:4
- 10/06/26LJacob Fearnley#96Challenger Ilkley · R326:4 0:6 3:6
Lorenzo Carboni
- 12/10/26WMackenzie McDonald#169Challenger Olbia · R326:7 6:4 1:0
- 06/09/26LGerard Campana Lee#449Challenger Seville · Q12:6 3:6
- 01/09/26LPedro Martinez#130Challenger Como · R321:6 0:3
- 11/08/26LDaniel Michalski#256Challenger Todi · R320:6 3:6
- 10/08/26WMaximilian Homberg#848Challenger Todi · Q26:1 6:1
- 09/08/26WGabriele Maria Noce#761Challenger Todi · Q16:1 4:6 7:6
- 04/08/26LPetr Brunclik#359Challenger Plovdiv 2 · R324:6 4:6
- 07/06/26LManuel Mazza#645Challenger Cattolica · Q17:6 0:6 1:3
- 02/06/26LRoberto Carballes Baena#258Challenger Perugia · R326:3 1:6 4:6
- 01/06/26WJelle Sels#579Challenger Perugia · Q26:4 6:4
Elo over the last year
Luca NardiLorenzo Carboni
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Nardi | L. Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 11–1346% | 8–947% |
| Clay | 3–538% | 11–1542% |
| Grass | 3–350% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Luca Nardi
- 13/10/26WAugust Holmgren#236Challenger Olbia · R324:6 6:4 6:4
Lorenzo Carboni
- 12/10/26WMackenzie McDonald#169Challenger Olbia · R326:7 6:4 1:0