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Challenger GuayaquilChallenger 75Qualifying round 2claybest of three setsqualifying

Nijboer vs Claverie 0:2: result and our tips

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Ryan NijboerATP #382Elo 1599clay 1601
0:2final5:7 3:6
Lorenzo ClaverieATP #865Elo 1463clay 1554

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: NijboerLost71%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 71%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Claverie lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ryan Nijboer71%
Lorenzo Claverie30%

Elo: R. Nijboer 57% · L. Claverie 43%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 R. Nijboer47%
2:1 R. Nijboer23%
2:1 L. Claverie14%
2:0 L. Claverie16%

First set

Ryan Nijboer65%
Lorenzo Claverie35%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 60%market (no margin): 53%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%59%
20.560%40%52%
21.554%46%47%
22.548%53%40%
23.542%59%36%
24.538%62%34%
25.535%65%30%

Sample: 3,879 matches

Games handicap

R. Nijboer −3.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 21 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Ryan NijboerLorenzo Claverie
3Aces9
5Double faults8
49%First serves in54%
62%First-serve points won79%
42%Second-serve points won46%
2/5Break points converted4/15
6/10Service games held9/11
52%Service points won63%
37%Return points won48%
65Total points won81

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

R. NijboerTourL. Claverie
Service points won63%62%65%
Return points won41%38%32%
Service games held78%76%84%
Breaks of serve29%24%12%
Aces per service game0.360.78
Double faults per game0.240.34
Sets with a tie-break10%39%
Tie-breaks won3/78/12
Wins in straight sets58%67%
Matches in the sample3113

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ryan Nijboer

Lorenzo Claverie

Elo over the last year

Ryan NijboerLorenzo Claverie

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

R. NijboerL. Claverie
Hard court0–10%0–50%
Clay19–1163%6–275%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Ryan Nijboer

Lorenzo Claverie