Challenger BragaChallenger 75Round of 16claybest of three sets

Nijboer vs Moeller 0:2: result and our tips

·

Ryan NijboerATP #417Elo 1610clay 1612
0:2final3:6 3:6
Marvin MoellerATP #239Elo 1766clay 1769

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Lost61%

Where the number comes from: market alone 64% → with the players' profiles 61%

Moeller: 6 matches in a row over 19.5 games

Other tips

  • Tie-break in Match: NoWon74%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 70% → with the players' profiles 74%

    Nijboer: 9 matches in a row without a tie-break

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ryan Nijboer30%
Marvin Moeller70%

Elo: R. Nijboer 29% · M. Moeller 71%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 R. Nijboer17%
2:1 R. Nijboer14%
2:1 M. Moeller23%
2:0 M. Moeller47%

First set

Ryan Nijboer35%
Marvin Moeller65%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%68%
19.561%39%59%
20.554%46%52%
21.548%52%47%
22.542%58%40%
23.538%62%36%
24.535%65%34%

Sample: 3,883 matches

Games handicap

Marvin Moeller −3.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes26%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Ryan NijboerMarvin Moeller
4Aces4
6Double faults2
57%First serves in68%
55%First-serve points won67%
40%Second-serve points won46%
2/9Break points converted5/6
4/9Service games held7/9
48%Service points won60%
40%Return points won52%
55Total points won71

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

R. NijboerTourM. Moeller
Service points won62%62%62%
Return points won41%38%41%
Service games held78%76%78%
Breaks of serve30%24%30%
Aces per service game0.350.28
Double faults per game0.240.21
Sets with a tie-break8%15%
Tie-breaks won2/511/15
Wins in straight sets59%59%
Matches in the sample2742

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ryan Nijboer

  • 07/10/26WMackenzie McDonald#169Challenger Braga · R326:1 4:6 6:3
  • 05/10/26WBenjamin Hassan#500Challenger Braga · Q26:3 6:3
  • 04/10/26WNico Hipfl#740Challenger Braga · Q15:7 7:5 6:1
  • 22/09/26LFrancesco Forti#336Challenger Genoa 2 · R323:6 4:6
  • 21/09/26LAlejandro Juan Mano#593Challenger Genoa 2 · Q26:4 3:6 4:6
  • 20/09/26WIannis Miletich#972Challenger Genoa 2 · Q16:3 6:3
  • 19/08/26LTommaso Compagnucci#372Challenger Sion · R163:6 2:6
  • 18/08/26WMurkel Dellien#407Challenger Sion · R326:2 6:1
  • 09/08/26LJannik Opitz#828Challenger Hamburg · Q13:6 6:2 3:6
  • 17/07/26LGuy Den Ouden#321Challenger Bunschoten · QF4:6 6:7

Marvin Moeller

Elo over the last year

Ryan NijboerMarvin Moeller

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

R. NijboerM. Moeller
Hard court0–10%6–460%
Clay17–965%23–972%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Ryan Nijboer

Marvin Moeller