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ATP Vienna500Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Norrie vs Cerúndolo 2:0: result and our tips

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Cameron NorrieATP #41Elo 1954hard 1921
2:0final6:4 6:1
Francisco CerúndoloATP #19Elo 2047hard 2010

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Lost63%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Norrie: 7 matches in a row over 20.5 games

Other tips

  • Tie-break in Match: NoWon57%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 57%

    No tie-break in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Won63%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Won37%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 20.5 games in 3 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Cameron Norrie34%
Francisco Cerúndolo66%

Elo: C. Norrie 37% · F. Cerúndolo 63%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Norrie20%
2:1 C. Norrie15%
2:1 F. Cerúndolo23%
2:0 F. Cerúndolo42%

First set

Cameron Norrie39%
Francisco Cerúndolo62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.572%28%68%
20.564%37%60%
21.558%42%54%
22.550%51%46%
23.542%58%40%
24.540%60%38%
25.537%64%35%

Sample: 5,402 matches

Games handicap

F. Cerúndolo −2.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes43%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 17 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Cameron NorrieFrancisco Cerúndolo
0Aces5
0Double faults4
72%First serves in61%
68%First-serve points won58%
53%Second-serve points won43%
4/6Break points converted0/1
8/8Service games held5/9
64%Service points won52%
48%Return points won36%
73Total points won59

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. NorrieTourF. Cerúndolo
Service points won64%62%63%
Return points won36%38%40%
Service games held81%76%78%
Breaks of serve20%24%29%
Aces per service game0.370.36
Double faults per game0.200.24
Sets with a tie-break24%13%
Tie-breaks won15/319/19
Wins in straight sets44%65%
Matches in the sample4958

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Cameron Norrie

Francisco Cerúndolo

Elo over the last year

Cameron NorrieFrancisco Cerúndolo

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. NorrieF. Cerúndolo
Hard court20–1656%17–1259%
Clay5–645%15–865%
Grass0–20%5–183%

Head to head

C. Norrie 1–2 F. Cerúndolo

  • 26/05/23Winner: F. Cerúndolo3:6 0:6
  • 10/04/23Winner: F. Cerúndolo3:6 4:6
  • 17/05/22Winner: C. Norrie6:4 6:4

See also