Osaka vs Paolini 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 75%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Osaka won 7 of the last 10 matches
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Osaka: 3 matches in a row over 22.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: N. Osaka 68% · J. Paolini 32%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 21.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 73% | 27% | 72% |
| 18.5 | 64% | 36% | 64% |
| 19.5 | 56% | 44% | 56% |
| 20.5 | 49% | 51% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 44% | 56% | 44% |
| 22.5 | 38% | 62% | 38% |
| 23.5 | 34% | 66% | 34% |
Sample: 1,665 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 22%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 2:0
- Total games Under 21.0out · 22 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Naomi Osaka | Jasmine Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aces | 1 |
| 3 | Double faults | 0 |
| 53% | First serves in | 72% |
| 79% | First-serve points won | 64% |
| 50% | Second-serve points won | 61% |
| 3/4 | Break points converted | 2/9 |
| 9/11 | Service games held | 7/10 |
| 65% | Service points won | 63% |
| 37% | Return points won | 35% |
| 77 | Total points won | 69 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| N. Osaka | Tour | J. Paolini | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 56% | 55% |
| Return points won | 43% | 44% | 44% |
| Service games held | 77% | 63% | 63% |
| Breaks of serve | 33% | 37% | 36% |
| Aces per service game | 0.53 | 0.13 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.24 | 0.23 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 13% | 9% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 8/12 | 2/8 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 53% | |
| Matches in the sample | 40 | 38 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Naomi Osaka
- 06/10/26LKarolína Muchová#7WTA Beijing · R165:7 6:1 6:7
- 04/10/26WSara Bejlek#32WTA Beijing · R327:6 6:4
- 02/10/26WMaria Timofeeva#72WTA Beijing · R646:3 3:6 6:3
- 07/09/26LElena Rybakina#1WTA US Open · R161:6 4:6
- 05/09/26WElise Mertens#14WTA US Open · R326:3 3:6 7:5
- 03/09/26WKateřina Siniaková#49WTA US Open · R646:2 5:7 6:1
- 01/09/26WAnastasia Zakharova#105WTA US Open · R1287:6 7:6
- 11/08/26LElena Rybakina#1WTA Toronto · QF6:4 6:7 4:6
- 09/08/26WLeylah Fernandez#23WTA Toronto · R166:4 6:4
- 07/08/26WElise Mertens#14WTA Toronto · R326:1 6:2
Jasmine Paolini
- 22/10/26LIva Jovic#12WTA Ningbo · R164:6 3:6
- 20/10/26WAnhelina Kalinina#55WTA Ningbo · R326:2 7:5
- 15/10/26LSonay Kartal#52WTA Wuhan · R162:6 0:6
- 14/10/26WNikola Bartunkova#29WTA Wuhan · R327:6 6:3
- 12/10/26WSara Bejlek#32WTA Wuhan · R646:3 6:4
- 02/10/26LDaria Snigur#40WTA Beijing · R646:3 6:7 2:6
- 04/09/26LSorana Cirstea#16WTA US Open · R323:6 3:6
- 02/09/26WLucrezia Stefanini#118WTA US Open · R646:4 6:1
- 30/08/26WVeronika Erjavec#161WTA US Open · R1286:3 3:6 6:4
- 08/07/26LMarta Kostyuk#10WTA Wimbledon · QF3:6 2:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| N. Osaka | J. Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 14–670% | 12–1348% |
| Clay | 7–370% | 3–443% |
| Grass | 8–280% | 4–267% |
Head to head
N. Osaka 0–1 J. Paolini
- 24/03/25Winner: J. Paolini6:3 4:6 4:6