ATP Almaty250Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Pavlovic vs Simakin 1:2: result and our tips

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Luka PavlovicATP #207Elo 1706hard 1699
1:2final3:6 6:3 6:7(6)
Ilia SimakinATP #143Elo 1834hard 1847

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: SimakinWon66%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 66%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Simakin won 8 of the last 10 matches

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: SimakinWon62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Pavlovic lost the first set in 8 of the last 20 matches, Simakin won the first set in 16 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Luka Pavlovic34%
Ilia Simakin66%

Elo: L. Pavlovic 30% · I. Simakin 70%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Pavlovic20%
2:1 L. Pavlovic15%
2:1 I. Simakin23%
2:0 I. Simakin42%

First set

Luka Pavlovic39%
Ilia Simakin62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 48%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.574%27%68%
20.566%34%60%
21.559%41%54%
22.552%48%46%
23.544%56%39%
24.540%60%38%
25.537%63%34%

Sample: 5,290 matches

Games handicap

Ilia Simakin −2.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes45%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 23.0out · 31 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Luka PavlovicIlia Simakin
16Aces11
1Double faults0
58%First serves in70%
80%First-serve points won77%
54%Second-serve points won63%
1/5Break points converted1/9
14/15Service games held14/15
69%Service points won73%
27%Return points won31%
95Total points won97

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. PavlovicTourI. Simakin
Service points won64%62%64%
Return points won35%38%39%
Service games held80%76%79%
Breaks of serve19%24%27%
Aces per service game0.800.53
Double faults per game0.350.25
Sets with a tie-break20%17%
Tie-breaks won14/2616/28
Wins in straight sets61%46%
Matches in the sample5567

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Luka Pavlovic

  • 15/10/26LMattia Bellucci#68Challenger Jinan · R164:6 4:6
  • 14/10/26WTristan Schoolkate#169Challenger Jinan · R327:5 6:4
  • 12/10/26WKangyuan ShiChallenger Jinan · Q26:1 6:1
  • 11/10/26WThomas Fancutt#685Challenger Jinan · Q17:5 6:3
  • 05/10/26LIlia Simakin#143ATP Shanghai · Q16:4 4:6 1:6
  • 01/10/26LLloyd Harris#104Challenger Jingshan · R162:6 3:6
  • 29/09/26WAkira Santillan#309Challenger Jingshan · R326:2 6:4
  • 22/09/26LAlexandre Muller#131ATP Chengdu · Q14:6 7:6 3:6
  • 16/09/26LHunter Heck#595Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R166:3 1:6 6:7
  • 15/09/26WHa Minh Duc VuChallenger Phan Thiet 4 · R327:5 6:3

Ilia Simakin

Elo over the last year

Luka PavlovicIlia Simakin

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. PavlovicI. Simakin
Hard court16–1355%43–1377%
Clay11–1346%3–827%
Grass1–150%0–0

Head to head

L. Pavlovic 0–1 I. Simakin

  • 05/10/26Winner: Ilia Simakin6:4 4:6 1:6

See also