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Challenger Sioux FallsChallenger 125Qualifying round 2hardbest of three setsqualifying

Poling vs Zahraj 2:0: result and our tips

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Karl PolingATP #453Elo 1442hard 1434
2:0final7:6(4) 7:6(7)
Patrick ZahrajATP #523Elo 1462hard 1476

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Karl Poling45%
Patrick Zahraj55%

Elo: K. Poling 44% · P. Zahraj 56%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 K. Poling26%
2:1 K. Poling18%
2:1 P. Zahraj21%
2:0 P. Zahraj36%

First set

Karl Poling45%
Patrick Zahraj55%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 55%market (no margin): 54%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%71%
19.566%34%62%
20.559%42%54%
21.553%47%49%
22.546%54%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.539%61%35%

Sample: 5,686 matches

Games handicap

P. Zahraj −1.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes32%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Karl PolingPatrick Zahraj
1Aces6
4Double faults7
72%First serves in55%
56%First-serve points won77%
61%Second-serve points won31%
4/8Break points converted4/10
8/12Service games held8/12
57%Service points won56%
44%Return points won43%
95Total points won92

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

K. PolingTourP. Zahraj
Service points won63%62%58%
Return points won39%38%38%
Service games held78%76%68%
Breaks of serve25%24%24%
Aces per service game0.210.37
Double faults per game0.240.51
Sets with a tie-break23%10%
Tie-breaks won7/245/9
Wins in straight sets57%73%
Matches in the sample4440

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Karl Poling

  • 25/10/26WMaxwell Exsted#888Challenger Sioux Falls · Q16:3 6:2
  • 18/10/26LAlex Rybakov#636Challenger Fort Worth · Q14:6 4:6
  • 27/09/26LPatrick Zahraj#523Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · Q16:3 3:6 2:6
  • 22/09/26LTitouan Droguet#72Challenger Saint Tropez · R327:6 4:6 6:7
  • 21/09/26LMoez Echargui#350Challenger Saint Tropez · Q24:6 6:7
  • 20/09/26WYanis Ghazouani Durand#529Challenger Saint Tropez · Q16:2 6:1
  • 13/09/26LNikola Slavic#863Challenger Rennes · Q16:7 7:6 6:7
  • 25/08/26LThomas Fancutt#692Challenger Kingston 2 · R324:6 3:6
  • 17/08/26LStefanos Sakellaridis#132Challenger Quebec City · Q16:3 3:6 2:6
  • 02/08/26LAidan Kim#634Challenger Lexington · Q12:6 4:6

Patrick Zahraj

  • 25/10/26WGovind NandaChallenger Sioux Falls · Q17:6 7:6
  • 19/10/26LKaylan Bigun#535Challenger Fort Worth · Q23:6 2:6
  • 18/10/26WShunsuke Mitsui#589Challenger Fort Worth · Q16:3 6:4
  • 28/09/26LAlexandre Reco#809Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · Q25:7 3:6
  • 27/09/26WKarl Poling#453Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · Q13:6 6:3 6:2
  • 21/09/26LMurphy Cassone#282Challenger Saint Tropez · Q22:6 5:7
  • 20/09/26WMathys Erhard#373Challenger Saint Tropez · Q14:6 7:5 7:6
  • 14/09/26LMaxime Janvier#649Challenger Rennes · Q24:6 4:6
  • 13/09/26WJoshua Sheehy#765Challenger Rennes · Q17:5 6:3
  • 25/08/26LPatrick Brady#698Challenger Roehampton 2 · R323:6 2:6

Elo over the last year

Karl PolingPatrick Zahraj

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

K. PolingP. Zahraj
Hard court15–2043%13–1941%
Clay6–367%2–529%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

K. Poling 0–3 P. Zahraj

  • 27/09/26Winner: P. Zahraj6:3 3:6 2:6
  • 22/03/26Winner: P. Zahraj5:7 4:6
  • 11/11/24Winner: P. Zahraj2:6 2:6

Road through the tournament

Karl Poling

Patrick Zahraj