Challenger VillenaChallenger 125Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Rehberg vs Barton 1:2: result and our tips

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Max Hans RehbergATP #280Elo 1714hard 1725
1:2final1:6 7:6(1) 6:7(3)
Hynek BartonATP #288Elo 1690hard 1680

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoLost62%

Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 62%

No tie-break in recent matches: Rehberg 15 of 20, Barton 16 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 20.5Won62%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 62%

    Rehberg: 4 matches in a row over 20.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 26.5Won32%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Rehberg: 4 matches in a row over 26.5 games; Over 26.5 games in recent matches: Rehberg 10 of 20, Barton 5 of 20 (tour average 27%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Max Hans Rehberg56%
Hynek Barton44%

Elo: M. Rehberg 56% · H. Barton 44%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Rehberg36%
2:1 M. Rehberg21%
2:1 H. Barton17%
2:0 H. Barton26%

First set

Max Hans Rehberg55%
Hynek Barton45%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 48%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.570%30%62%
20.562%38%54%
21.556%44%49%
22.549%51%42%
23.543%57%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.537%63%32%

Sample: 5,562 matches

Games handicap

Max Hans Rehberg −1.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 33 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Max Hans RehbergHynek Barton
2Aces9
6Double faults5
65%First serves in64%
69%First-serve points won85%
54%Second-serve points won58%
0/5Break points converted3/10
13/16Service games held15/15
63%Service points won75%
25%Return points won37%
94Total points won110

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. RehbergTourH. Barton
Service points won65%62%64%
Return points won40%38%39%
Service games held83%76%81%
Breaks of serve27%24%24%
Aces per service game0.280.55
Double faults per game0.180.19
Sets with a tie-break15%16%
Tie-breaks won6/1611/26
Wins in straight sets75%70%
Matches in the sample4771

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Max Hans Rehberg

Hynek Barton

Elo over the last year

Max Hans RehbergHynek Barton

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. RehbergH. Barton
Hard court11–379%12–1055%
Clay17–1652%28–2157%

Head to head

M. Rehberg 1–0 H. Barton

  • 04/11/24Winner: Max Hans Rehberg6:4 6:2

Road through the tournament

Max Hans Rehberg

Hynek Barton

  • 04/10/26WStefan LatinovicChallenger Villena · Q16:3 7:5
  • 05/10/26LPyotr Nesterov#298Challenger Villena · Q26:3 4:6 1:6
  • 07/10/26WToby Samuel#100Challenger Villena · R327:6 6:3